Zelensky will hit the Donbass to stop the rebellion in Ukraine

Kiev disrupts “Normandy 4” peaceful achievements and prepares for war again.

Disturbing news comes from Donbass. Over the past day, Ukrainian security forces fired on the territory of the Lugansk People’s Republic. This was told at the representative office of the Lugansk Republic in the Joint Center for the Control and Coordination of the Ceasefire. The Donetsk Republic was shelled also. According to RIA Novosti, citing sources in the representative office of the DPR in the Joint Center for the Control and Coordination of the Ceasefire (JCCC), only over the past day the total number of violations by the Armed Forces was seven times.

The situation will continue to heat up.

Ukrainian security officials are actively deploying equipment near the areas of the separation of forces and assets near the settlements of Zolotoye and Stanitsa Luganskaya in the Donbass. This was reported by the press service of the People’s Police of Lugansk the LPR.

– In the area of ​​the village of Stanitsa Lugansk there is the presence of one armored infantry fighting vehicle belonging to 46 brigade (Ukrainian Armed Forces). 72 brigades deployed four infantry fighting vehicles in the Zolotoye settlement, – the press service said.

In addition, it is reported that the armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also recorded in Kiev-controlled Makarovo and Lisichansk.

– The Ukrainian security forces continue to deploy weapons and military equipment in residential areas controlled by settlements, which poses a threat to the lives of civilians,” the department added.

The “good” comedian Zelensky goes to such measures that even Poroshenko could not decide.

The fact that the Ukrainian security forces returned to their positions in the area of ​​the separation of forces and assets near Zolotoy and Stanitsa Lugansk in the press service of the LPR defense department was told last week.

– Within the limits of the breeding area No. 1 in the area of ​​the village of Stanitsa Luganskaya, the military personnel of the 46th APU brigade are in the previously abandoned positions, which is a direct violation of the eighth paragraph of the Framework decision of the tripartite Contact Group on the separation of forces and means, signed on September 20, 2016 and prohibiting the presence of military personnel on the breeding sites of the parties, – the PERS agency quotes the message.

According to the republic’s military intelligence, seven units of armored vehicles were recorded in Kiev’s Zolotoye territory, two more BTR-80s were located in the vicinity of Stanitsa Luganskaya.

The press service of the People’s Militia emphasized that this was a direct violation of previously reached agreements and added that this information was also confirmed by observers of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM).

The ministry also expressed the opinion that in this way it can be stated that the process of the separation of forces in the area of ​​the Zolotoye village, which the Ukrainian side went to because of the “Norman summit” in Paris, is now “virtually canceled” – Ukrainian troops are returning to their previously abandoned positions .

At the same time, the press service of the NM noted that the absence of armed forces from the Ukrainian side in the area of ​​the separation of forces from the very beginning was very conditional.

Recall that back in 2016, the contact group to resolve the situation in Ukraine signed a framework decision on the deployment of forces and means of the parties to the conflict in the Donbass in the areas of the settlements of Zolotoye, Petrovsky and the village of Lugansk. At the same time, only the first two were actually bred (in Stanitsa Lugansk in fact only in June 2019), but after a while Donetsk and Lugansk stated that in the Petrovsky and Zolotoye districts the Ukrainian military returned to their positions.

The new breeding was completed by November 1 – this was the condition for the next summit of the “Norman Four”, in which Vladimir Zelensky was to take part for the first time as president of Ukraine.

The meeting ultimately took place on December 9 in Paris, one of the decisions made was to continue the breeding of si and funds in three new areas. A report on the implementation of this decision should be submitted to the next meeting of leaders, scheduled for spring 2020. However, what will be presented?

The words of the President of Russia provoked in the “independent” effect of the exploding bomb

Does it make sense to agree on new breeding sites, if on the former everything is back to square one? It turns out a step forward – two steps back?

At this pace, it is not worth talking about Ukraine’s “homework” (according to the terminology of Foreign Minister Vadim Priestayko) …

– If it is really confirmed that the Ukrainian side has permanently deployed its combat vehicles in the zone of troop withdrawal, then this, of course, can lead to a breakdown of agreements, – Vladimir Kornilov, columnist for the Russia Today news agency, is sure.

– Since the LPR will be forced to act in a mirror.

– Why do they place armored vehicles there? Are you getting ready for something? Or just like that?

– Let’s not forget: Ukraine has already withdrawn its troops from these points. And then their «bloody pastor» Turchinov announced the “toad jumping tactics” – and the Ukrainian militants returned to their combat positions, which led to death among civilians. Therefore, one must be prepared for everything, including the resumption of such provocations.

– As stated in the press service of the LPR, the Ukrainian security forces continue to deploy weapons and military equipment in residential areas controlled by settlements, which poses a threat to the lives of civilians. What for? To provoke victims and blame the militias?

– Ukraine has never refused this. Kiev understands that the forces of Donbass will not bombard residential facilities, and therefore hides its military equipment there. Such cases were recorded by observers more than once, and Kiev never refused such criminal tactics.

– Will anyone pay attention to this? Or will everyone, as usual, pretend that they have not noticed anything? The press service of the LPR People’s Republic of Moldova says that information on the return of security forces to their positions is also confirmed by observers of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission …

– I do not yet know when the OSCE mission recorded such violations. In fact, for several days in the mission reports there was one APU combat vehicle under a camouflage net, but 50 meters north of the breeding zone. This is a violation in itself, but still outside the zone. If the OSCE confirms the violation of the zone’s borders, then, of course, this needs to be fixed and submitted for discussion to the Minsk Group.

– Does it make sense in these conditions to conduct a dialogue about new breeding points? Indeed, you can endlessly take a step forward, and then two steps back …

– In any case, a dialogue on de-escalation of the conflict should be conducted. Since the alternative to dialogue is the resumption of large-scale hostilities with new victims. But we should not talk about 2-3 points, but about complete breeding along the entire front line. Otherwise, the shelling will never stop.

– Is it possible to say that Ukraine will fail its “homework” by spring? Will there be a new meeting of the Normandy 4?

– The recent actions of Ukraine regarding the disruption of negotiations on the exchange of prisoners and the refusal to comply with most of the points of the Minsk Agreement cast doubt on the situation by spring. If Kiev refuses to fulfill Minsk, I have doubts that the meeting scheduled for spring will take place on the specified dates.

– I think that this is a threat of collapse, not collapse, – says Larisa Shesler, chairman of the Union of Political Emigrants and Political Prisoners of Ukraine.

– The divorce of troops at three points was quite decorative, and the return of troops to their positions could occur at any time. In the event of a serious breach of agreements, a statement by the OSCE observers should be expected. But, of course, the armed forces defending the LPR need to be in a state of readiness to respond to provocations and violations of the agreements, since both nationalists and the Armed Forces command can become initiators of such.

The aggravation in the Donbass may become a distraction for the Kiev authorities in connection with the aggravation of the situation in Kiev and Ukraine. But judging by the final report of the tripartite contact group in Minsk on December 18, there is not yet any kind of unexpected deterioration.

– The Ukrainian military continues to deploy weapons and military equipment in residential areas controlled by settlements …

– This tactic of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is used all the time of the war in the Donbass. If we read the Ukrainian media, there are constant accusations of shelling of peaceful settlements, which, allegedly, carry out the forces of LDNR. In fact, civilians suffer from shelling of Ukrainian artillery and Ukrainian mortars, and the tactics of deploying weapons among residential buildings is connected with the desire of the Kiev authorities to shift the responsibility for this to the defenders of Donbass.

– Will someone notice in the West? Does it make sense to get their attention, or will they ignore it anyway?

  • The West is responding to statements by the TTG and reports of OSCE observers. At the Normandy meeting’s final press conference, Emmanuel Macron said that “a decision has been made to step up the OSCE’s efforts to monitor compliance with the ceasefire 24 hours a day, seven days a week.”

This means that all movements and activity of the APU will not be left without attention and fixation. I do not think that Zelensky is interested in a confrontation with Macron today because of the disruption of the outcome of the meeting in the “Norman” format.

– This was already in 2016, when it seemed that armies have been separated, but not for long. So we come to the same thing? One to one repetition?

– I do not agree. The situation has changed dramatically. In 2016, Poroshenko was confident in the full and unconditional support of the West, and European countries at that time believed that the sanctions and discrimination of Russia in PACE would force Russia to stop supporting Donbass. Now everything has changed. Western Europe does not intend to continue the confrontation with Russia, the war party led by Poroshenko completely lost the sympathy and support of Europe. Yes, and the United States stopped propping up Kiev power with cookies and decommissioned weapons. In these conditions, Zelensky is very important to demonstrate the desire for peace and the ability to compromise, so today he is not interested in the global deterioration of the situation in the Donbass.

He can start real military operations there only under the threat of rebellion inside Ukraine, but so far the situation has not gone out of his control.

– Does it make sense in these conditions to conduct a dialogue about new breeding points?

– At the moment, negotiations with Kiev are not conducted to achieve a real result, but in order to deflect accusations that Russia is the initiator and author of the war in the Donbass. Naturally, the Ukrainian side today cannot ensure the return of peace to the Donbass, and Russia’s actions are aimed at demonstrating this.

Kiev has always dreamed of conducting a “Croatian scenario” with the cleansing and expulsion of all disloyal. Of course, if Kiev had managed to do this, Europe would have turned a blind eye to it, but Poroshenko had made sure that Western Europe would not send NATO in support of Kiev to implement this scenario. That is why Zelensky has to maneuver between the hammer of the European position and the anvil of embittered nationalists, organized by Petro Poroshenko, and demonstrate “a principled patriotic peacefulness.”

– They could not agree to exchange prisoners either. Is it possible to consider that the period of “progress” in the peace process is over? Zelensky was weak? Or does not want? Or what else?

– The deadlines for the exchange were deliberately unrealistic. Today in Ukraine hundreds of people are imprisoned as opponents of the current regime, and for several years now they cannot wait for trial. That is why the position of Kiev that only convicts by the Ukrainian court can participate in the exchange has become unacceptable for the party of LDNR. The wording of “all for all” itself is unsafe for political prisoners in Ukraine, since it assumes that if someone did not get exchanged, then this is hopeless – there will be no other exchange. And this wording makes Donbass especially carefully and meticulously relate to the lists that the Ukrainian side offers.

Zelensky is neither weak nor strong. He is a typical figure playing according to the rules set for him and within the corridor allotted to him. And while the majority of the population of Ukraine supports him, he will control the parliament, the government and the security forces.

But, of course, negotiations must be continued, since it is necessary to pull out from prisons those who defended the Donbass and those who opposed the 2014 armed coup. I think that the “peace process” will constantly stall, accelerating slightly for meetings in the Norman format. For Russia and the republics, the main goal is to stop shelling and deaths, while I am sure that the return of Donbass to Ukraine is impossible, and therefore it is necessary to carry out the process of integrating Donbass into Russia economically, politically and legally.