The experts gave the actor’s epoch a specific period, although his popularity continues to grow.
Ukraine will definitely join NATO, but after the referendum, Vladimir Zelensky promised his compatriots after visiting the Alliance’s Brussels headquarters and meeting with its head Jens Stoltenberg.
During his first trip to the West in the rank of president, he, as usual, not only shook dozens of hands and distributed not less smiles, but also held a number of meetings, including with the leadership of the North Atlantic military bloc.
Moreover, NATO’s theme seemed to inspire him so much that he directly from Brussels stated in an interview with one of the Ukrainian television companies that he was ready to bring to the referendum the question of Ukraine’s accession to this “defensive alliance”. But first, he will try to explain to the Ukrainians that “NATO is not scary.”
Zelensky himself believes that “the course into NATO is the security of the country and the level of our army.” And Ukraine, according to him, “will be in NATO”.
Will it be-will it not – it is still, as they say, “Grandma said in two.” Means you can not predict it. Today, hardly anyone can say with certainty what will happen to Ukraine at all by the end of the term of its current president.
Yes, Zelensky and Poroshenko have one, as it turns out, a “guiding star” – they really want to see an “independent” member of the North Atlantic alliance. Poroshenko even managed to edit the country’s constitution in the finals of his presidential career, squeezing in there a clause setting out the course towards joining the EU and NATO.
Another thing is that in the military alliance, although they are happy with the aspiration of Ukraine to become part of the anti-Russian militarist machine, they still prefer to keep a low profile. And they diligently explain to Kiev that the country in the next twenty years is unlikely to qualify for membership in NATO. It is necessary, they say, still “catch up” according to a number of criteria and standards. To carry out, as Stoltenberg said, “reforms, as well as modernize defense and security institutions”.
Another important, in his understanding, condition is that Ukraine needs to defeat corruption …
In general, the unattainability of the latter as a result may put an end to the NATO attempts of the leadership of Ukraine.
But even if a miracle happens, and all the current members of the alliance will take Ukraine into their hot embraces, will this thereby be a boon and a guarantee of security, what are the current rulers trying to convince Ukrainians of?
Just their hidden intentions and intentions are clear – to cling to the strong and continue to do the nasty things of Russia on a large scale.
Actually, neither Poroshenko, nor Zelensky, nor their environment, these goals have never been hidden and do not hide. It is no coincidence that Aparshin, advisor to the new president on security and defense issues, long before his boss’s visit to Brussels, said that the Zelensky team would maintain a course toward NATO membership and would fight with Russia.
Only if they think that, being NATO soldiers, it is easy and simple to die, then they are mistaken. And the APU will have to participate in this case (defending the interests of the United States, mainly) in military operations outside Ukraine.
In addition, membership in the alliance needs to be paid, and this is at least 2% of GDP, which is very heavy for a country that is steeped in debt. And, moreover, as a NATO country, Ukraine immediately falls under the scope of Russia.
But most importantly, as the Kiev Internet newspaper Strana writes, this makes it impossible for the Donbass to return to the Ukrainian state and puts an end to any compromise options with Russia, which is ready to negotiate with a neutral Ukraine.
- As a member of the alliance, Ukraine is an unequivocal opponent, threatening the Russian Federation right on its western borders, – the newspaper notes.
- And this means that Russia itself will have no reason to contribute to the reintegration of Donbass, even if Kiev shows a desire to compromise on this issue. After all, the end of the war and reintegration will bring Ukraine closer to joining NATO.
However, so far all the statements of President Zelensky are more like ritual chatter.
Even Savchenko noted that in Brussels he only played the role of Poroshenko. And nothing of what was said during this trip, she is sure, “will not be realized.”
- The fact is that Zelensky is a populist, – Vasily Stoyakin, director of the Ukrainian Center for Political Marketing, comments on the situation.
– It focuses on the opinion of the majority of the population.
And at the moment, more than half of Ukrainian voters are in favor of Ukraine joining NATO. Moreover, they are going to vote in a referendum for such an entry.
That is, in this respect, Zelensky does not form public opinion, he follows already formed public opinion. Therefore, the situation here is quite definite.
If public opinion was what it was, say, in March 2014, when about 40% (or even less) acted for membership in the alliance, and the opponents would have a relative majority, then it would have the position is different. But in March 2014, Ukraine had the Crimea and the Donbass, and the war in the southeast had not yet begun.
So let’s say, over the past five years, the situation has changed with respect to NATO, in part, precisely because of the presence of an internal conflict. It is as a result of the rejection of the Crimea. And this is an objective factor, let’s face it.
And the Kiev propaganda that Ukraine is a victim of aggression, already coming option, it is their announcement of what actually happened.
In this situation, in general, the behavior of the country’s population is understandable, and the behavior, strictly speaking, of Zelensky himself is understandable.
Incidentally, among Zelensky’s voters, in fact, there is no special relationship at all to NATO issues, nor to EU issues, nor to language issues. He has everything in sociology, as in the whole array.
– What does it mean, in your opinion?
– This suggests that for his voters these issues are, in fact, important to no more than all other Ukrainians. That is, they have another little interest in Zelensky, they expect another from him.
They expect justice from him, awaiting punishment for the guilty, awarding the uncomplicated, sausage for two twenty and a salary for a thousand euros. Something like that … Actually, all these questions, which are considered ideological in modern Ukraine, are not particularly important for his voters.
Therefore, the position taken by Zelensky, is not only logical and consistent with its own position expressing the interests of the whole people, it does not cause it any special electoral damage. Because, whatever position he takes, it is not so important for his voters.
– And for voters it is important that NATO is expensive and not particularly safe, because Ukraine is becoming an enemy target for Russia and will it still give 2% of its GDP for it? Zelensky will explain to them why Ukraine is being substituted?
– You know, I am not acquainted with Zelensky himself, but I came across and repeatedly talked with his key political adviser, the head of the Servant of the People Party, Dmitry Razumkov, who is quite a reasonable, rationally-minded person. And I am absolutely sure that everyone in the Zelensky team understands that in the next ten years, at least, NATO membership will not threaten Ukraine.
Therefore, hold a referendum, do not hold, it will be solely a factor of domestic policy, which will increase at some point its popularity.
I recall that Saakashvili in Georgia held a referendum. And nothing…
Here it is a purely domestic political issue. And I do not think that it is relevant now to say, in principle, that Ukraine, having conducted this referendum, is thus being substituted somewhere.
In fact, there are no special options in the same place. What other defensive alliance Ukraine to join? Nothing? But when it was so, it became, as they say in Kiev, a victim of “Russian aggression”. So this position does not help …
– Do you think, after all the latest statements of Zelensky, he has a chance to return to the Donbass and go to some constructive dialogue with Russia?
– If we talk about Donbass, then, as far as I can understand, the question is generally not worth it – return it, not return it. Ukraine, in fact, over the past five years has already come to terms with the very fact that the Donbass will not return. And the Crimea will not return.
Naturally, officially, Kiev will continue to talk about the fact that “we will fight, we will demand sanctions from our partners and to crush Russia constantly, we will remind of aggression, to spoil our nerves.”
But they will not do anything to return these territories.
Poroshenko did everything so that they did not return. When Zelensky will not do anything so they returned. Formally, it will look like this: “now we will carry out reforms, everything will be fine with us, and they will crawl on their knees”. At the same time, they themselves perfectly understand that no, they will not crawl.
– How should the president’s behavior be understood when he first says that he will hold a referendum on negotiations with the Russian Federation, declares the next day that there will be no negotiations, and then he is again ready to negotiate?
– I think that he simply does not understand himself what line he should follow in this matter. Zelensky does not have a definite view in public opinion;
That is, the first ideas, they were quite logical precisely from the point of view of a politician of this type, like Zelensky – “let’s maximize the circle of responsible parties so that I don’t bear responsibility, but bear responsibility, say, Germany, France, Great Britain and the United States. Let them agree there, and we will sit quietly between them, see which way the situation is headed, and we will act accordingly. ”
But we see that nothing comes of it. Because neither the UK nor the United States, they do not seek to get into the Minsk format and try to solve Ukraine’s issues in some way.
Therefore, Zelensky has to wriggle out and look for this middle position right inside the country, if you cannot find it outside. In this regard, he is, in fact, a rational man, he is a majority politician.
– The question is, how long on this populism will Zelensky be able to maintain such a high trust rating?
– I think that not for long. Although now he continues to grow, and indicators, in fact, a record. The stock of social optimism in society associated with the new presidents, is very large.
He is associated with, indeed, a lot of hopes of all sorts of different. But, again, the most important thing here will concern economic, social issues, the punishment of corrupt officials, and this will be very difficult.
The point is that the economic issues of Ukraine, they, in principle, are not solved. We have a series of crises, each of which is unsolvable.
We usually talk about external debts, but even the issue of external debts can be tried to be settled somehow. Although it is unlikely that Ukraine will meet. And what to do with engineering networks? Pipes, communications, railway – everything is breathing its last hours. This is all that was actually built in Soviet times. Something was being repaired, something was altered, but this is several times less than what exists. And it requires a lot of money.
And where to get them on the condition of the same external debts and a lot of other issues?
How, say, to take labor, even if, for example, the economy works?
The training of workers’ specialties has been completely destroyed, with the engineers there is a terrible deficit … The people are massively knocking out of the country … And how can we get the skilled workers back?
That is, these are all questions that not only Zelensky, but generally no matter how great a politician, can not solve. And it is clear that sooner or later it will hit him. I think it will be in two years. And he finally collapses.