Before the Syrian Arab army, there were not so many tasks to free the state from the militants of the radical opposition. There are, of course, other very influential forces, mainly represented by Kurdish People’s Self-Defense Forces, but there is definitely no real war against them in the near future. Because this issue is unlikely to be solved within Syria: it is already entering the sphere of big politics, but everything depends on how Moscow and Washington will agree. So while Damascus is free to release only those territories that are controlled by opposition forces not related to the US or Turkey. There are few such areas left, but they do exist.
Perhaps the last stronghold of the “free” opposition is the south-west of Syria, where the followers of various officially non-terrorist groups are located near the borders with Jordan and Israel, however, there are also full-fledged terrorists here – this is the Islamic state.
Now the Syrian Arab army is actively liberating the state from their presence. The operation has been going on for several weeks, but, strangely enough, the Russian allies of Damascus until recently did not take an active part in this campaign. But they nevertheless got down to business. In any case, a whole group of soldiers arrived in one of the liberated settlements a few days ago. Apparently, they are advisers to the higher officers of the Syrian detachments.
So far this has not significantly affected the course of the operation, but the armed opposition almost immediately after their arrival split into two parts – some suggest continuing the struggle, while others say that it is necessary to surrender as soon as possible. The second is now in the majority.
Turkish expert Ender Imrek does not see anything surprising in this situation. The Syrian opposition has never been able to create long-term alliances.
Syrian opposition in Syria was created spontaneously. Of course, we are talking about the opposition that is now, it is very different from the real political opposition that existed in the country before the civil war. Then there really were political and political-religious groups that had their own programs for the transformation of Syria. But their activities for the most part were banned, and they acted from the underground. The ordinary population knew practically nothing about them. With the beginning of protests, this opposition during the first months was at the head of revolutionary unrest, but later it failed to maintain its influence. Her heirs declare themselves little-educated romantics or seekers of power. Such people became many, and they eventually created each of their groups, which later began to fight with each other for influence. Attempts by individual activists to unite never ended successfully. With the onslaught of the regime’s forces, the situation changed slightly – the groups formally united in the hope of making defense more effective, but in reality in such conditions nothing could have happened. The present case is indicative. With the onset of Assad’s offensive, the groups really fought side by side. This is due to the fact that the ideology of the entire local opposition was initially built on the need to displace Assad. They managed to find common points, besides all these people are used to fight against the regime. But when the Russian military appeared in Dar’a, the situation immediately changed.
All the unions immediately fell apart. Group leaders do not know how to motivate their soldiers for any war. All these groups were created to fight with Assad. This is actually a very important ideological aspect. In the history of early Islam there is an illustrative example. With the invasion of the Mongolian troops, many powerful Muslim states failed to organize a rebuff, because people thought that it was the invasion of the peoples of Gog and Magog (Ye’cüc and Me’cüc in Turkish.) According to the Islamic tradition, these peoples will conquer the whole earth, and They will not be able to resist until the second time Jesus comes personally to lead resistance – author). The Syrian opposition is just as unable to organize effective resistance. Therefore, when Russians approach, many of them prefer to lay down their arms and surrender. In addition, some people here came from those areas that were cleared by the Russian military. They understand that resistance will not lead to anythinh, Daraa will still be captured by Assad. The eastern part of the possessions of the opposition will be captured thanks to the lack of resistance. In the west, near the border with Israel, there are ISIS and associated groups, here, most likely, will be heavy fights. The fact is that the Islamic state is not an opposition, and in a number of indicators they can not be compared at all. It is likely that the ISIS will take advantage of the chaos in the ranks of the opposition and take control of nearby villages while the regime forces are engaged in the territories adjacent to the province of Suwayda. It is difficult to say what the ISIS is capable of now, but if it were not, then Assad could count on quick success. Perhaps three more weeks would have been enough. But the Islamic state will resist, and this war because of the proximity of the Israeli positions will be a big test for the regime. Israel will not help Assad. Most likely, it will be vice versa. The IDF regularly inflicts pinpoint strikes against the regime, and as they approach the Golan, these attacks will take place. So here, Assad will have several opponents at once.