A new local military conflict that may have global repercussions is brewing in Venezuela. Donald Trump allowed the US military to be sent there. “Of course, it is possible, this is one of the options,” said the President of the United States on CBS television.
In addition, recently the press managed to remove an entry in the notebook of national security adviser Trump John Bolton: “Five thousand soldiers in Colombia.” And on February 7, a meeting of Colombian President Ivan Duque with the American President is to take place. Coincidence?
Moscow could not ignore such facts. “The United States does not hide the fact that they want to change the regime at any cost … Trump said that he leaves on the table the option of military intervention. This undermines all the foundations of international law, ”outraged Sergei Lavrov.
The anger of the Russian Foreign Ministry is understandable. In Venezuela, in the eyes of the situation of the second Syria. Russia, by its intervention in the Middle East, hoped to stop the practice of violating international law. Now you have to intervene in Latin America too? Especially considering that there are economic interests of Russia in Venezuela. These are contracts within the framework of military-technical cooperation for the maintenance of equipment and massive investments in the oil sector of this country. The sum of 17 billion dollars is called.
However, will Russia have enough forces for military intervention? Venezuela is not a passing beam. Perhaps, therefore, for a while we operate in the diplomatic field. Promised to build a dialogue based on the proposals of Mexico and Uruguay, which announced support for Maduro.
Unexpected help came from Italy, which vetoed the decision of the European Union to recognize Guaydo as interim president. To split the West on the Venezuelan issue is well worth it.
Much depends on how the situation will develop within Venezuela itself. Last weekend in Caracas street demonstrations of opponents and supporters of Maduro took place, but it’s too early to talk about the advantage of one of the parties.
At the same time, some officials and even the military continue to move to Guaydo. Among the latest are Air Force Generals. Not without reason, Maduro allowed the political crisis to escalate into a civil war with the support of the United States. “It all depends on the level of madness and aggressiveness of the northern empire,” he explained.
American political scientist, expert of the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Konstantin Blokhin expects that Washington can use a third force to invade Venezuela.
– I exclude a large-scale invasion of the United States, for example, as in Iraq or in Afghanistan. Because Venezuela can turn for Trump into Latin American Vietnam. The intervention consolidates Venezuelans against America and will only strengthen the Maduro regime. It is not known whether it will bring benefits to the Americans. As practice shows, the sanctions pressure is more effective than brute force.
And Trump himself is not a supporter of large-scale invasions. He is not happy with the fact that the United States spent 7–8 trillion. dollars in the middle east. He is a supporter of the collapse of the American military presence. And if it exists somewhere, then let the receiving party pay for it. Now, for example, negotiations are underway on the price of the further finding of the American military in South Korea.
So a large-scale land invasion of Venezuela – boots andegraund (boots on the ground) will most likely not be.
– Then what, what scale, intervention is likely?
– Rather, a limited special operation is possible using the US Special Forces. Moreover, not to change the regime, but to eliminate Maduro himself. After all, it is easier to kill the leader than to change the regime.
The need to kill Chavez several years ago was publicly stated by the influential American politician Pat Robertson. And we know that later Chavez died unexpectedly from cancer. Maduro himself recently also was attacked with drones during the parade.
But there may be other scenarios. Perhaps it was no coincidence that Bolton showed the press his notebook with a record of sending troops to Colombia. Washington does not like when American soldiers are killed, but to force controlled Colombia to begin military operations is pretty simple.
olton is considered a“ hawk ”…
– It is symptomatic that Eliot Abrams is now the main American curator for Venezuela. This is a radical hawk, a neoconservative. He is famous for his involvement in the Iran-Contrans operation, when the CIA, secretly from Congress, together with Israel, sold arms to Iran against Iraq, and financed the contras in Nicaragua with the money received. When all of this came to light during the Reagan Abrams administration, they began to judge. But then George W. Bush justified him.
In addition, it was Abrams, along with Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and Paul Wolfowitz, who put pressure on George W. Bush to launch a large-scale invasion of Iraq. Abrams was a member of the Project for a New American Century organization, whose goal was to preserve the US leadership in the world by any means.
If Trump falls under the influence of Abrams, the consequences will be catastrophic, not only for Venezuela, but for all of Latin America. And already it is clear that the US is returning to a more active role in Latin America. They are trying to compensate for their failures in the Middle East and Eurasia in the South American continent, where their positions are stronger.
Moreover, there is an increase in the influence of Russia and China in the Western Hemisphere. Therefore, the United States wants to undermine this influence.
And most likely it is synchronized with Trump’s ideas on oil. In his book, America’s Past Power, he wrote: “My task is to reduce the price of oil to $ 20 a barrel.” Then to bankrupt all competitors who hate America and make money on oil. This is the same Venezuela, Russia and Saudi Arabia, which is to blame in September 11.
According to military expert Alexei Leonkov, Venezuela is ready to fight back on the American invasion, if it takes place in the classical form.
– When Russia intervened in Syria, the Syrian army was a pitiful sight to the attacking side. They were attacked by terrorists armed with modern weapons, communications, and intelligence. That is, they had all the advantages over the regular army of this country. Russia changed the balance of forces, which allowed the terrorists to repulse.
Traces of “dirty” money, exported from the country from the North Caucasus, lead not to Europe, but to the Emirates.
In Venezuela, the situation is slightly different. We have already provided military technical assistance. Russia supplied arms to about $ 12 billion. As a result, Venezuela modernized its ground forces: armored units and artillery, including multiple launch rocket systems.
Venezuela can build a layered defense system. It is clear that the means of attack, which are usually used by Americans – “Tomahawks”, Venezuelans are likely to be shot down. They have the Tor-M1, Buk-M2E and S-300VM complexes. They will cope with cruise missiles and aircraft if they participate in the attack. In addition, Venezuela received aviation equipment.
So it can withstand the aggression of a high-tech state such as the United States. And any landing in the tropics will be a repetition of Vietnam. The Americans did not learn to fight in “Zelenka” – green jungle.
– Again, someone else will be?
– Most likely, the United States will not go into direct conflict with Venezuela. Most likely, they will use Colombia for this. Well, and can be sent as instructors of their PMCs, which were previously in Syria and other regions. This will allow Trump to “wash his hands” at any time.
It should also be borne in mind that the Pentagon recently lost its most experienced leader, James Mattis. He, as a former commander of the Marine Corps, had great authority in the army. Along with him a few more experienced military leaders left the Pentagon.
– Apparently, no wonder February 7, Trump meets with the President of Colombia.
– Yes, and before that a “comrade” from the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the USA went to Colombia. He did not go for a drink — he went there, but to assess the state of the armed forces of Colombia and give instructions on which units would go across the border under the guise of Venezuelan rebels. After all, Guaydo must have its own armed units. Americans, of course, will support them with air strikes in Syria.
Therefore, a lot now depends on how quickly Venezuela can mobilize. The military-technical assistance that both Russia and China can provide is also important. I think this is a matter of negotiation now. The United States understands that we can very quickly transfer a contingent of our troops to Venezuela. After that, the US-Venezuela conflict will turn into a US-Russia conflict.
f course, we will not lose everything in Venezuela, but difficulties will increase. Some projects may be revised. There may be problems with the prepayment of Rosneft, which is “stuck” there. Not yet covered about 3 billion dollars, which we gave for the supply of oil.
We send this oil to an oil refinery in the Indian city of Vadinar, which was incorporated by Rosneft. So it is strategic – there is already a market for it. Now there may be difficulties in implementing the Rosneft full-cycle processing strategy.
Difficulties with the delay in current payments on loans are also expected. The Ministry of Finance agreed that the loan body is not paid yet, only interest. The next tranche should be in the spring. It is small, but it is important – will or will not be delayed.
– All this affects the global oil market?
– Of course, geopolitical uncertainty in Venezuela has a beneficial effect on the price per barrel. It grows.
Well, how exactly the events will develop, no one knows whether Venezuela will be the second Syria or Libya. How decisive the Americans will be, how Russia will react … In any case, Venezuela will have to fight. The question is what methods? For now, we see political leverage is being used.