Poroshenko decided and ordered to prepare a land operation, the purpose of which is to reach the state border of the Russian Federation, placing a continuous ring around the Donbass. Imagine this situation? Reckless Ukrainian tankers, by chance, or rather deliberately, with such a detour maneuver, they will enter the territory of Russia with caterpillars. The border there, in the Rostov region, is not marked with anti-tank ditches, fortified areas, it can be tritely overlooked. What will happen?
– Stop who goes there! Stop, I will shoot! Shoot! – they will burn Ukrainian armored vehicles in hell. And reports about the attack of Russia in Kiev have already been written in advance, it remains only to back them up with video chronicles. And Poroshenko’s plane with a flight to Brussels to NATO headquarters is already under steam.
- I do not think that all this will be in such a quick perspective. But this conflict is inevitable, since the West is preparing Ukraine for a big war with Russia, says military expert Vladislav Shurygin.
– And one of the tasks: to drag Russia into a long and bloody confrontation. It’s just that the West is well aware that the Russian economy and the attempts to build it cannot stand a long war at all. All northern gas flows along with Turkey, hundreds of treaties and agreements will go under the tail, the status of military operations will close a number of borders and not only with neighboring states. Moscow does not need a war now. It is not by chance that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation speaks about its probability precisely as a means of provocation on the part of Kiev.
Kiev doesn’t need war either, and especially the majority of Ukrainian citizens. “To play war games” I want only Poroshenko himself, even if it will be a small mess, but always with the participation of Russia. The operation could be called “Teasing the Geese” or “Waking up the sleeping bulldog” – there is one goal and it’s in the desire to … lose. It is desirable as soon as possible.
The exact date of the start of the current large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Donbass is December 24, voiced by some Bulgarian officer (Bulgaria is a NATO country, which among other European countries of the alliance allegedly received information from Brussels about the beginning of the armed conflict). The date, we note, is rather strange – on the night of December 24 to 25, Catholics from all over the world will celebrate Christmas, and if we consider that most of the Ukrainian military personnel called up from the western regions are Catholics by religion, then Poroshenko will put them in place of the Christmas goose a huge pig. Or does he expect to finish the whole campaign by the evening? Or, most likely, he will not start a “big war” this time either.
If we recall the events of two years ago, then a large-scale military operation was undertaken by Kiev at the end of January – after the Christmas (Catholic and Orthodox) and New Year holidays. The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was launched at the position of the Supreme National Council (Novorossiya armed forces) near Donetsk, in the Peski-Yasinovataya-Avdiivka triangle, on the Svetodar arc, near Dokuchaevsk, in the Shirokino area and in the direction of Slavyanoserbsk in the Luhansk region. In response, they received an even more powerful blow with all forces and means, which they did not seem to count on.
The scale of the battles could be assessed on the map along the whole confrontation line. If from the south, from the Azov Sea, this is the town of Shyrokyne, located between the Ukrainian Mariupol and the Novoazovsky part of the DNR. The attacking forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as part of the marines of the 36th brigade, battalion groups of the 28th and 17th motorized rifle brigades and the 54th reconnaissance battalion stumbled upon a dull defense of the VSN and did not achieve much success.
Above to the north – Krasnoarmeyskoe and Kominternovo. There is a steppe, and it seems to be operational space. But here, the APU, which received the task of capturing Kominternovo, were not able to achieve the result and, as a result, lost to their initial positions with losses. For the village of Novotroitsk, located opposite the village of Volnovakha, fierce fighting also took place. These are already close approaches to Donetsk and one of the directions for the planned Ukrainian Armed Forces environment of the Donbass capital. Success was not achieved here and the battles turned into positional ones.
Russia may not have time to intervene in the new war in the DNR, launched in the Mariupol direction
The most interesting “geography” is directly the outskirts of Donetsk itself – the direction of the main attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the nationalist battalions in the Avdeevka-Piski-Yasenovataya triangle. This direction is a wedge between Donetsk and Gorlovka. Even higher there is the notorious Svetlodar Arc, named after the city of the same name located here. The arc is arched inside the territory of the DNR and the Ukrainian army here has repeatedly tried to find a gap. The most northern point of the “delimitation line” is above Lugansk, near the town of Slavyanoserbskoye, not far from the settlement of Happiness.
It is likely that now the Ukrainian Armed Forces will refuse such a large-scale operation and will concentrate all efforts in one direction – Mariupol. In order to reach the Russian border as quickly as possible, and then, after the “irreversible” losses, quickly surrender following the example of the sailors in the Kerch Strait. Donbass militia jokes: “For a long time, we have not been replenishing Ukrainian armored vehicles.”
There is a version that the preparation of the attack on the Donbass is only a red herring (“SP” told about it), and the main provocation can happen, for example, in Transnistria, where the Russian military contingent is located. The Russian forces there are really small – about 400 from the peacekeepers who control the border with Moldova, and 2 battalions of about a thousand soldiers engaged in the protection and maintenance of an arsenal near Tiraspol (a village with a “delicious” name Kovbasnia). Here Poroshenko can get some punch for “bad behavior” from European partners for initiating hostilities on the territory of a neighboring state as well. But he needs a scandal at any cost, even if it is hit by Russian missiles on this territory …