Turkey is going to pacify Haftar, and along with Russian mercenaries.
Libya is still experiencing the effects of the removal of Muammar Gaddafi. So, more recently, his “heirs” – if you can call the participants in the civil war in the country – decided to start another operation to concentrate power in Libya in the same hands. Khalifa Haftar, a US citizen, by the way, announced that the Libyan National Army led by him would launch another campaign against Tripoli and finally end the dual power in the country. That is, Haftar simply wants to overthrow the so-called Government of National Accord, in which Faiz al-Saraj is the prime minister.
A civil war has been going on in the country for many years, therefore various forces are in charge of Libya, or rather, the territory that officially continues to be considered Libya. For the most part, the capital is held by Saraj with his loyal people. In addition, there are authorities loyal to him in various regions, but Marshal Khalifa Haftar is the main military force here. He has been trying to take Tripoli for a long time, but to no avail – either the offensive will choke, he will be delayed by the organization of some regular negotiations, then foreigners will intervene at the most inopportune moment. By the way, something similar is happening again now.
In the first half of December, Haftar took courage and announced that Tripoli should be released. The fighting became more active, Haftar was a little more successful, but then it suddenly occurred to the officially recognized authorities, which are members of the Government of National Accord, to call for help from foreigners, namely the Turks.
Surprisingly, Recep Tayyip Erdogan immediately responded, and he responded as they had expected in Tripoli – the Turkish president promised that the issue would be considered in January, and most likely the result would be positive. Erdogan made this clear. Moreover, our respected Turkish “partner” in his commentary attacked the mercenaries surrounding Haftar.
At first, he expressed bewilderment at the presence of thousands of militants from African countries in Libya, and then he moved on to the Russians. Erdogan mentioned the so-called “Wagner mercenaries,” according to his information, there are about two thousand of these soldiers in Libya. What did our guys forget in this African country? Everything is very simple. Moscow supports Haftar in his struggle for power. And rumors about the presence of Russian citizens in Libya have been around for a long time. However, for the first time, these rumors are commented by the president of another country.
In Russia, they reacted classically to this – they say, no aggravations are needed, for Libya this threatens with another aggravation of the conflict and the like. Regarding our citizens, Peskov said that it is impossible to control them all, that is, someone could really leak out, but at the same time did not mention communication with private military structures.
How events will develop, we tried to find out from Russian political scientist and orientalist Karine Gevorgyan.
– What do you think, will Ankara really send its military to Libya?
- The fact that Turkish proxies are fighting in Libya has long been known. This is an open secret. They have supported al-Saraj and his government for several years. So sending another batch will not change the situation much. I think it will be a small contingent. Apparently, Erdogan or his Libyan partners now need this legalization for some reason.
- But why does Turkey need this at all?
– Turkey makes money like that. Turks pass through the Black Sea, through their territory Libyan oil. Libya can’t directly trade in oil right now, and it uses the services of Ankara, for which it is very profitable. Oil flows through Turkish territory, enters Ukraine, and then flows through a pipeline to Europe.
What are the consequences for the “hypersound” will have an unsuccessful test of the latest fighter?
– And what about the Russian mercenaries?
– I cannot comment on this without having any information – closed or open. But I am sure that any citizens of Russia, if they are there, are at the invitation of official authorities.
– Who do you mean by the official authorities? There are different points of view on this.
– It’s about the authorities of eastern Libya (East Libya, like most of the rest of the country, is ruled by just Khalifa Haftar). That is, their presence is legal and does not contradict international standards.
– Will all this affect Russian-Turkish relations?
– I think no. At least there will be no major changes. This is just a local divergence of interests, and that’s it. Like in the same Syria. Take the situation in Idlib. The Turks are now clearly very unhappy with how the operation to clean the province from militants intensified. But somehow you have to look for ways out.
– Good. Then tell me, will it come to the point that in Libya, Turkish citizens will fight with Russian citizens?
- Turkish proxies are already at war with Haftar, and if there are Russians in the ranks of the forces supporting him, then this has probably happened, but I can not say anything about the mercenaries. I just do not have the information.