The endless dispute over Syria between foreigners is gaining new momentum every day. Russia and Israel share the western airspace of the Arab Republic. Russia and the United States share what the Kurds will get, and what remains for Assad. And even with Iran, its closest ally, Moscow resolves territorial disputes. Today Russian military will drive the Persians out of their military bases, tomorrow we return the entire Lebanese border to the pro-Iranian Hezbollah. Quite complex mechanisms for sharing and maintaining peace.
But not only Russia is embroiled in such situations. With Turkey, things are about the same. First, Ankara has long since shared with the North-Western territories with Damascus and Russia. Until Asad was strong, Idlib’s question did not arise, but there were disputes around Afrin and the city of Aleppo. In the case of Afrin, the Turkish army several times intended to launch an operation against the Kurds who held the region, but the campaign was postponed due to the political intervention of Moscow. As a result, the leadership of Turkey even made a statement that it was supposedly not at all against Damascus controlling Afrin, if only it was not the detachments of people’s self-defense and the Labor Party of Kurdistan. It seems to be an excellent scenario, but here the Kurds themselves rebelled and refused to make such a deal with the Syrian government.
The result is well known – the Kurds were routed and driven to the east, and Assad and his entourage began to pour in menacing comments about the Turkish interventionists – they said they should get out. No one left, and the debate around Afrin has not abated so far, however, now they are purely verbal.
Then came a period of difficult negotiations on Idlib. Here, Turkish diplomats had to deal exclusively with their Russian colleagues. There were many versions of how it all ends. In Syria, they thought that the attack was inevitable, in Turkey itself they warned of grave consequences, while in Russia they preferred to keep the intrigue. Everything resulted in a peace agreement, which, however, in fact is not as effective as expected.
It seems to be settled, but it is still far away for Erdogan to feel calm. After all, the Russians and Syrians are not his only concern. There are the same Kurds, but with them everything could be solved simply – to unleash a hard war and in a couple of years to break up the people’s self-defense detachments and disband the Democratic Union (the Kurdish party that controls the people’s self-defense detachments and actually rules the northern Syria) . However, all the cards are confused by the Americans.
The United States has long made a bet on those very Kurds, and for several years now they have fought side by side with them against all those pointed to by Washington. So brute force can be fraught. And this is the reason for the endless negotiations between Ankara and Washington. At first, Erdogan’s team acted more successfully – it managed to achieve concessions from the US administration regarding the controversial Manbij in the north-east of Aleppo province. It even seemed to be persuaded that the Popular Self-Defense Detachments and all the other Kurdish militias would leave there. Over time, it became clear that Ankara was led by the nose – no one led the Kurds, even for a while their flags were lowered. Then they raised it anyway.
And now, against the background of new disputes with the United States, Turkey again threatens to take serious measures and promises a major operation against the Kurds and the United States. And it is not just words. In recent weeks, a large number of soldiers and equipment have been pulled to the border with Syria. They are located along the contours of the provinces of Racca and Aleppo, that is, in Kurdish-American territories. At the time of writing, the technique continued to arrive at the border.
The US on the eve of potential Turkish activity did not waste any time. They, too, jumped their heels and began to strengthen their positions. According to unconfirmed information, additional forces have even arrived in northern Syria from abroad, apparently mobilizing local resources is not enough. But that’s not all – the States for the period while the Turks were planning an offensive, managed to build a couple of new bases almost near the border with Turkey.
Turkish expert Keram Yıldırım believes that the situation is very dangerous and its development is unpredictable.
– The behavior of the United States raises many questions. They do not keep promises. Cavusoglu (Turkish foreign minister ) agreed with Tillerson (former US Secretary of State ) that terrorist groups (in Turkey, the people’s self-defense units are recognized as terrorist groups) will leave Manbidj. They also agreed to jointly patrol areas of Aleppo, for which the Americans are still responsible. There were patrols, but I know from the military that all procedures were performed unprofessionally. In the villages where the Turkish military marched, there were no YPG flags (an abbreviation of People’s Self-Defense Detachments from Kurmanji, which is actively used in Turkey – auth.), But there were a lot of military men, they didn’t have weapons, just removed the stripes. The Turkish military has not entered Manbij itself. Were in the vicinity, but not inside. The Americans did not allow and did not even explain the reasons. It looks like a hoax. Of course, such conditions are not suitable for the transaction. Therefore, Turkey announced a new operation. If the problem cannot be solved with the world, then what options remain?
– And what?
- The problem for Turkey here is that the United States, by its presence and common actions, allows the terrorists to strengthen, they create their own terrorist state, one of whose goals is to develop Syria, Turkey and, maybe, even Iran. Perhaps the United States does not fully understand that this is possible, but this does not change their role. And another problem is that the United States does not respond to further diplomatic proposals from Turkey. They declare that the plan has been developed and everyone should adhere to it, but the plan does not work. Therefore, the risks of collisions are now high. How the USA will behave – much depends on it. They may not intervene in the antiterrorist operation and avoid clashes with the Turkish army, but so far everything looks different – their people, their weapons, their bases are just in the way of the Turkish army if it crosses the border. And it is very dangerous. In this case, there is nothing left for Turkey, how to attack not only terrorists, but also their accomplices in the face of those American military who will go to the end in this criminal defense of the YPG militants.