Trump will make no concessions to Putin in Helsinki

What can we expect from the meeting of the leaders of the two countries in Finland?

On Monday, July 16, a meeting of the leaders of the United States and Russia should take place in Helsinki. In Russia they are already trying to forecast the results of the first full-fledged meeting between the Russian and American presidents. According to Konstantin Kosachev, head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Council of Federation for International Affairs, “in our relations with America we have reached such a level that it can only be pushed aside: it is only possible to” punch “below into a military clash, which for two nuclear powers would mean mutual destruction.” True, Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, at the same time says that “the direct connection between Trump and Putin is in the interests of the United States,” but “one should not expect fateful decisions from the summit.”

The West is very frightened by the meeting of Putin and Trump. I’m thinking about whether economic policy issues will be discussed in Helsinki. – the head of the Department of International Relations and Diplomacy of the Moscow Humanitarian University asks, the ex-diplomat who worked in the FRG, the USA Nikolay Platoshkin.

«My wet dream is to respond to US sanctions asymmetrically: send them Golikov, Kudrin, Siluanov as advisors. They will collapse the American economy in record time. Raise the retirement age, will introduce and immediately increase the VAT, which, by the way, is not in America», – he said.

Unfortunately, Trump is intelligent and unlikely to do this.

We are confronted by the so-called collective West, torn apart by internal contradictions. How can Russia take advantage of them in its favor? By the way, Stalin and Roosevelt had excellent relations, which tried in every possible way to undermine Churchill, fearing the agreements between the Soviet Union and America. Now England continues the traditions of Churchill. At the same time, the British are clearly uncomfortable with the fact that a “revolutionary” came to power in America, saying: “In NATO, in general, there is no need”, “I am for Brexit”, “I am against Germany, Russia needs to be returned to” eight “. The West is in some horror that Trump has encroached on the holy. That’s what we need to use.

The German Chancellor considers the US President to be the destroyer of the world order, against which the Crimean issue is losing its relevance. But the US conducts the sanctions regime, the European countries can not disobey the “older brother”. If economic issues are raised at the summit, what kind of exchange is Russia ready to go to avoid new sanctions? Do we need these concessions? We do not. The Soviet Union lived under sanctions, moreover, serious. What now? Trade sanctions are practically not affected, except for shelf exploration, equipment … Financial sector? They buy our bonds there, that is, here capitalism comes to our aid. As Putin rightly said, all our economic problems are only 25% caused by sanctions, and all the rest is our own insanity. Trump sent in advance senators, who, in fact, can now cancel the sanctions, since the law has been in effect since August 2 last year. Like, talk to them yourself. Such, you know, a demonstration: the senators arrived and said: “Well, will you not interfere more in our elections?”. They promised it. I just think that the Americans will not sanction sanctions legally.

Some company wants to invest somewhere with us, but at the same time it doubts: can it wait, suddenly what will happen? If they see a psychological signal after the meeting, that, in general, everything is fine: Crimea remained Crimea, Ukraine – Ukraine, big bosses became friends – they will invest in Russia. The volume of trade with America is small, investments are relatively low. But the trade and economic ties with the European Union are wide, even now. Participants in the EU will go to abolish sanctions?

A year ago, the ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany told me that “German investments in Russia are generally at their best. At you the ruble has fallen off, now “folksvagens” in Kaluga is cheaper to collect, than in Mexico “. Can you imagine ?! Cheaper even with transportation! Because we have a very cheap salary now in foreign currency. World Cup has made changes in Russia’s relations with countries around the world, in particular, Russian-American?

Trump has always been willing to cooperate with Russia. I can not say that I have been following him since his birth, but the election campaign was clearly looking, and you know, I was still shocked at what he said. He said some uncomfortable things. “You have to be friends with the Russians.” He believes that the Crimea should be part of Russia, but Trump is now lined with some flags. They say: try to make any concessions.

As for the Crimea, I think it will not be discussed at all. They planned a one-on-one meeting. Before the meeting of the delegations, I think Trump will simply tell Putin that he will not be able to tell him at the meeting of the delegations.

Well, Putin did not say at the meeting of delegations: “But we sort of agreed.” That is, there will be a “Baltic option” with the Crimea, informal delegations, informal investors will be arriving there, but there will not be an official consulate of the United States. Why the Baltic? In the fortieth year, when the Baltic states joined us, the US never officially recognized it. But, nevertheless, de facto recognized, so business contacts, everything else went on. I think for the Crimea this is, in fact, the most important thing: They can not discuss this in a telephone conversation. With Trump you need to find the right language. He is vain, but it can be both a disadvantage and a dignity, right? He wants to go down in history. Trump, frankly, was bankrupt six times. He wants to go down in history. And this, you imagine, “here I am and Putin, we are all photographed, and if we agree on something before, we rule the world, which no one could do to me, and I did.”

How will the Middle East crisis be resolved with the genius? Trump is believed to be leading the policy of chaos in the Middle East, plans to pop out from there, negotiate with the Russians about the correct exit and exchange of the situation. Will it be discussed in Helsinki, if so, what kind of agreements can be between Russia and the US? Rather, they will decide here. Trump, this is his weak side, in my opinion, very pro-Israel purely on family issues: the son-in-law is classy, ​​his daughter likes him. Therefore, the meaning is the following: Israel says that “he does not care who will be in Syria, Assad, someone else, most importantly, that Iran is not on our borders.” That is, it broadcasts the following: “We will leave Syria, but you Russians will take care that your Iranian allies, conditionally speaking, not to the south of Damascus”. I think we can easily agree on this issue. We do not have any discrepancies with America, I think. Trump believes that “the democrats have done this whole nastiness, hundreds of thousands of deaths, wasted American money, and so on. I want to go from there. Well, what do we do there? “Russians:” We stabilized Assad. ” Well, whoever would treat Assad as much, everyone understands that he resisted. The Americans are afraid that the Iranians will come to our place, we are afraid that they will be replaced by gangsters. Trump tied the Nord Stream-2 to the Gordian knot. The US blackmailed Germany to increase the military spending. We have now a difficult economic situation. What can we learn from America? Look how the Americans came out of the 2008 crisis. Then they had the head of the Federal Reserve System, Ben Bernanke, nicknamed “Helicopter Ben.” They sent all low-paying Americans, middle class, a check for $ 2,000. The people went to the stores, there was a buying demand, unemployment fell, and as a result, the budget won even. Instead of paying unemployment benefits, people who returned to work themselves began to pay taxes. Why he was called “helicopter” – because he said: “It will be necessary to drop money from the helicopter”.

Most interesting, they have no inflation. They seriously calculated which categories of population to issue these dollars. At us the financial and economic block idle time, to it speak: “find money”, he speaks: “so, it is necessary to find there where it is easier”.

Another question that many people are worried about is that the United States and Russia are able to agree on Ukraine together, especially as part of the election campaign that begins there. “Trump hates Ukraine, thanks to The fact that his main advisor was Manafort. Trump made personal changes to the program of the Republican Party against Ukraine, because of everyone started yelling that he was a Russian agent and so on. I do not exclude that we can agree on the outcome of this meeting on a joint resolution in the Security Council on the introduction of peacekeepers. Well, as we want it. On the contact line in Donetsk, conditionally speaking. That is, he can very well go. And this, in fact, he and he, and we need for one – a formal excuse for lifting sanctions. During the reunification of Russia with the Crimea, I had a chance to talk with the American representatives of the security establishment. I was shocked by their reaction. They said: “Correctly, you are doing all this properly.” This was not said from the point of view of the will of the Crimeans. They said: “Yes, we can not imagine how this main base of the American fleet would be not just on someone else’s, but on a hostile territory. Guys, well done. ” He is asked: “Russia is engaged in cyber espionage.” He retorts: “Yes, but are we not engaged?”. “The Russians have intelligence” – “But do we not have it, or what?” Trump interested in human rights? It’s even funny to imagine. Here Saudi Arabia buys weapons for 100 billion – this is a great country. Is there democracy there? In general, he does not care. Union between the US and Russia is not just possible, but it is being formed. We do not have any contradictions with them.