Donald Trump, pushed by the “hawks” from his entourage, is once again preparing to strike at Syrian military targets. “Syrian President Bashar Assad should not foolishly attack the province of Idlib. The Russians and Iranians would have committed a serious humanitarian error by taking part in this potential human tragedy. Hundreds of thousands of people can be killed. Do not let this happen! “- wrote the American leader on Twitter on Monday afternoon. In Idlib, the last large groups of terrorists supported by Washington are concentrated. From there they make sorties to the territories controlled by the government, killing all in a row.
A concrete reason for attacking Assad should be a chemical chemical attack in the province of Idlib – the possibility of such a provocation has already been officially announced in Russia and Turkey.
What role will the White Helmets play?
The troops of the coalition led by the United States have already struck twice at military facilities in Syria (in April 2017 and in April 2018) – and both times after reports of chemical attacks allegedly committed by the government army. Moreover, this happened before any official confirmation was given that the official Damascus is behind the chemicla attacks: in fact, there is no such confirmation so far.
Both times, the Defense Ministry and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there were information provocations aimed at making the world community believe that Damascus is the one behind the use of chemical weapons.
Last year, the attack occurred in the town of Khan-Sheikhun (Idlib Province), and this spring in the Duma (near Damascus). This time it is being prepared again in the province of Idlib, which now continues to be controlled by militants from various insurgent and terrorist groups.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the data obtained from various sources and indicative of preparations for provocation were provided to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).
According to him, Idlib has already delivered a load of poisonous substances – barrels of chlorine, which will be equipped with reactive systems. Foreign Minister of Syria Walid Muallem confirmed and even expanded this version: the preparation for the staging will be done by the volunteer movement “White Helmets”. It is strongly criticized by Assad and was the first to announce an attack in the Duma in April 2018 (the Russian Foreign Ministry considers these reports as staged).
“Tomahawks” versus “Caliber”.
Moscow is trying to prevent the escalation of the conflict. However, it is already happening now. Igor Konashenkov, the head of the Information and Communications Department of the Russian Defense Ministry, said that the American destroyer USS Ross with cruise missiles Tomahawk entered the Mediterranean Sea last week, allowing to hit any ground targets in Syria.
In turn, last Friday, September 1, in the Mediterranean Sea, directly off the coast of Syria, began the Russian military exercises – they are involved in the Navy and the Military Space Forces. Supervises the exercises personally Navy Commander Admiral Vladimir Korolev. In particular, the frigates of the Black Sea Fleet Admiral Grigorovich and Admiral Essen are sent to the Mediterranean Sea, which are equipped with cruise missiles Caliber-NK.
Obviously, such an escalation of Russian and American factions off the Syrian coast is due precisely to the threat of bombing military facilities in Syria. All this takes place against the backdrop of a tightening of the military rhetoric of Damascus, which firmly intends to regain the province of Idlib – and with it almost the entire pre-war territory of the country.
The fact that the fighting in this province will lead to unpredictable consequences, warns all parties to the conflict in the UN: Secretary General of the organization Antonio Guterres said that it could be a humanitarian catastrophe (perhaps even more massive than in other parts of Syria). Up to 800,000 refugees can pour through the Syrian-Turkish border.
Mevlut Cavusoglu, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, also fears the same outcome: according to his estimates, out of 3.5 million inhabitants of the province only 10,000 are armed terrorists. At the same time, almost 1 million inhabitants of Idlib are children, and 1.6 million need food aid. The militants have already blown bridges in the south of the province to prevent the expected government offensive. “But the military solution would be a catastrophe not only for the Idlib region, but also a catastrophe from the point of view of the future of Syria,” Cavusoglu said.
What threatens the planet?
“The Free Press” asked Professor Mikhail Roshchin, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
-Why do you think the escalation in Syria occurred right now, when it seems that we have already started negotiations between Damascus and so on called “armed opposition”?
-I think that the situation around Idlib is aggravated in connection with the forthcoming summit of the presidents of Russia, Turkey and Iran, which will be held on September 7. The United States, in my opinion, is interested in tiring the situation and trying to save its “customers” in Syria from the final rout. If the Syrian army manages to take control of Idlib province, then this is greetings as a matter of fact to the end of the civil war.
-They say about the” imminent end ” in two years …
- As for Idlib, it seems that it would be worthwhile to avoid haste. Idlib is generally in the zone of Turkish interests, and Turkey today is one of our main allies, not only in the Middle East, but also in the world. Given the geopolitical prospects, it is advisable to take into account Turkey’s interests and agree with it on a certain delimitation of zones of influence, This is not forgetting the special sensitivity of the Turkish government to the activities of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in the border areas, including in Syria. In this connection, in my opinion, it would be better to avoid hard frontal clashes with pposition and apply tactics of gradual extrusion of overt extremists, but at the same time to find points of contact with moderate opposition forces.
- But, judging by the latest events, neither the US nor its satellites in the Middle East are interested in a peaceful settlement. “Referring to the aggravation of the situation in the Mediterranean Sea and the military build-up here I think this is due to the fact that American “hawks” understand that the time of influence of the Western coalition in Syria is rapidly disappearing and they are trying with aggressive rhetoric and threats to hide the real failure of the long-standing efforts of the Western allies at.