As conceived by the Americans, the Russian enclave will become a trophy of Warsaw when we lose the war in Europe.
The Jamestown Foundation experts presented an analytical report with the eloquent title “How to defend the Baltic States”. The author of the work is Jamestown’s senior researcher, Dr. Richard D. Hooker, Jr., who is sure that Moscow has not only reasons, but also intentions to occupy Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Accordingly, the task of NATO in his opinion is to repulse “Russian aggression” and punish the Kremlin.
It is noteworthy that according to the plan of Dr. Hooker, the United States will still fight for the Baltic states. The statement itself is quite controversial. Overseas have repeatedly made it clear that Latvians, Lithuanians and Estonians in the event of aggression are better off relying on themselves.
Donald Trump said during the election campaign that he would think: should he protect his Baltic vassals if Russia suddenly attacks them? And the former commander of the American contingent in Europe, Ben Hodges, said bluntly: the United States is preparing for a big war with China in the Pacific, so Europe will have to defend itself.
The Pentagon will strengthen the American contingent with tanks in order to more closely control the oil-producing areas of the country.
The Jamestown Foundation believes otherwise. It is assumed that after a hypothetical “Russian invasion” of the Baltic, NATO troops will quickly pull up to the battlefield. Moreover, not only Americans – France, Germany, Great Britain should also exhibit large military formations.
For the first thirty days of the war, the following “success parameters” were determined: maintaining control of Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius, depleting Russian first-tier forces by 50% and preventing them from joining their units and formations deployed in the Kaliningrad Region. Jamestown hopes that then in two weeks the pendulum will swing in favor of NATO. Putin will be forced to go on the defensive and keep the occupied territory.
True, the military potential of the Baltic countries to deter the “first wave” of attackers may not be enough. Therefore, the drafters of the document propose to strengthen the Baltics in advance with Abrams tanks, Paladin howitzers, etc. Yes, and the Balts themselves, according to the foundation, need to do a lot of “homework” (for example, put a lot more troops under arms than now ) If you leave everything as it is, Russia will seize Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in a few days, and NATO will come to the rescue only after months.
In parallel with this, the fund believes, the military power of Poland should be strengthened, which plays a special role in the upcoming war with Russia. The Poles will not defend the territory of Lithuania, because they will go on a more responsible mission. With the support of NATO and US forces, they must “neutralize” the Kaliningrad region. Otherwise, it will be difficult for the Americans to act in the region and maintain resistance to the forces of the invasion of Moscow in the Baltic states.
As part of the post-war settlement, the report says, it would be wise to give Kaliningrad to the Poles, who in this scenario would be forced to shed a lot of blood for the enclave. In other words, to forever give Russian land to the hands of the White Eagle, as the state emblem of Poland is called today. Why is that? For Russia, they say, the forced seizure of its territory would serve as a deserved punishment.
At a minimum, the condition for the possible return of the occupied NATO Kaliningrad region to the Russian Federation should be its demilitarization.
It is noteworthy that for some reason they are not considering the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons by Russia in the Jamestown Foundation. Although the alliance has been explicitly and unequivocally long told of the military doctrine of the Russian Federation about the inevitability of such an answer from Moscow. Naturally – only in a situation if the development of events on the future front will directly threaten the very fact of the existence of our state. But isn’t the occupation of part of Russian territory the very scenario?
Strange, but the limited “nuclear” response of our country to NATO’s invasion of the Kaliningrad region is mentioned in the document only as a very unlikely development of events. Why? It is believed that the Kremlin will not dare to order the use of weapons of mass against the West.
And just raise a white flag over the Spasskaya Tower?
The Free Press Foundation’s report was requested by professor of the European Studies Department at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, President of the Baltic Studies Association Nikolai Mezhevich, who, together with a colleague from the Baltic Federal University, recently prepared a large analytical report on the alignment of forces in the region as of the end July of the current year. He familiarized himself with the creation of the Jamestown Foundation and called it “decent work.”
– Of course, the appearance of the document is connected with the forthcoming Defender 2020 NATO military exercises in the spring of 2020 of an unprecedented scale, the main role in which is assigned to the US Army and the Polish Army,” the expert notes. – But to understand the situation, you need to turn to history.
The amazing configuration of the Baltic coast in its part from Koenigsberg to St. Petersburg has always attracted the attention of not only the military, but also many geographers, historians, sociologists, and philosophers. Karl Marx himself paid attention to this issue. In particular, in one of his works, he wrote that the Baltic provinces (that is, Estonia, Livonia and Courland) are interesting in terms of the fact that they are very difficult to attack, but also very difficult to defend.
Let’s leave Marx alone – that was a long time ago. Although the attitude to the Baltic States in the world is really special. Because with such a geographical position, the ability to defend Tallinn, Vilnius and Riga is at least in doubt.
But our opponents cannot answer one simple, but in fact – the main question: why? Why does Russia, Putin, Medvedev or someone else need Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania?
This is a terrible, most insoluble question in the Universe for any “unicellular” analyst from the Jamestown Foundation, from the Atlantic Council, from all kinds of Polish organizations of a similar type, which have bred like bugs. There is no answer and cannot be. Because no one needs this escheat with insane problems and remnants of a population that is not capable of producing anything other than anti-Russian and anti-Soviet rhetoric.
Judging by the actions of local authorities, the Baltic republics are not needed today even by themselves. But they are very suitable for certain expert centers to justify tension, to put pressure on Russia. It is clear, after all, that, for example, to attack St. Petersburg from Narva, to put it mildly, is easier than from Berlin.
– The idea that the military power of the Baltic states needs to be strengthened runs through the entire report. Both manpower, and technology. And the equipment is new orders for the American defense industry.
- Yes, the Americans have no competition here. Estonia does not produce tanks, Latvia does not produce anti-aircraft missile systems, Lithuania does not produce aircraft. Therefore, any cartridge box purchased by the Ministry of Defense of one of the republics is already an aid to the US budget. As they say, “not a single flea is not bad.”
– The report identifies the following conditions for NATO’s success in the first month of the “Russian invasion”: maintaining control of the Baltic capitals, depleting Russian first-tier forces by 50% and preventing them from joining the military in Kaliningrad. In your opinion, are these realistic tasks?
– I repeat: military scenarios that somehow argue for Moscow the need to capture Tallinn, Vilnius and Riga do not exist. There is not the slightest reason for this. If Russia receives comprehensive information that a blow will be inflicted on us, then for preventive action no one will send tanks to the capital of Estonia.
No extra noise. Today, the “Caliber” from the Caspian flies into the window of any headquarters of the Syrian opposition, discussing the preparation of terrorist attacks in Turkey. Something similar is possible in the case of the Baltic states.
Yes, in the event of the outbreak of a major war in Europe, our attacks on the military bases of the alliance of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are possible. But no one in Russia needs the republics themselves.
– The authors of the document proceed from the fact that the United States will fight for the Baltic states. Although, judging by information from other sources, the Americans do not intend to do this. Where is the truth here?
– I am not a specialist in the Near and Middle East. But experts all over the world have recently been very skeptical of such formulas. Because they saw how the Americans protect the Kurds.
You see, the life of any American is very valuable for Washington. And the life of any Baltic states from the point of view of the USA is not life at all. A primitive biological form of existence, so to speak. And if there is a choice between maintaining one American company or the national armed forces of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia combined, I assure you: the United States will choose its own one company. And just leave, leave this territory.
– Is the life of a Pole across the ocean also not considered a special value?
- Poland is a special issue. Now let’s better get around it. Everything said about Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia does not apply to Poland. Unlike many of my Russian colleagues, I believe that today for the USA these are different stories.
- Judging by the plan of the Jamestown Foundation, the Poles with the Americans occupy the Kaliningrad region quite simply. They will invade, destroy our air defense system and missile systems, block the Baltic Fleet – and the deed is done. Do these plans correspond to the real alignment of military forces in the region?
– Now I recall a very distant Soviet high school for me. There, once the head teacher found a notebook with a handwritten porn novel. In turn, they pulled out high school students of a manly appearance, who could be suspected of authorship. But the author was, as we would say today, a deep impotent botanist.
What am I doing? Moreover, experts who are discussing the possibility of a quick victory over Kaliningrad, most likely, did not hold anything heavier than a pencil in their hands.
If we are talking about some retired US military, then here is another point. Then we are talking about conscious provocation. In the history of Europe in the XX century, this has happened repeatedly.
– The document notes that Russia in the event of an attack on Kaliningrad may threaten the use of its tactical nuclear weapons, but this is an unlikely scenario. Where does such carelessness come from in the West?
– And now let’s see if Russia will use nuclear weapons in such a scenario? Will it be tactical or strategic?
Pay attention to where the dashing American warriors went once the conflict between North Korea and the USA reached a really menacing level. That’s right: they took their toothpicks and disappeared in an unknown direction. Are there guarantees that the Kaliningrad region will be different? Moreover, Russia is not the DPRK. This is a slightly different opponent.
And how will conditional Swedes or Finns react to the likelihood of a full-fledged war of the 21st century in Europe, which, as everyone understands, can slip into an uncontrolled nuclear conflict at any moment? Even the homeland of “boorish diplomacy” (that is, the United States) should be worried about the opinions of others.
The Jamestown Foundation (Jamestown Foundation) is an American non-governmental research organization founded in 1984 with the support of the CIA. After the collapse of the USSR, the activity of the fund decreased, the organization only issued a daily newsletter dedicated to events in the post-Soviet space. Revitalization began with the coming to power of George W. Bush.
As stated on the fund’s website, its publications are widely used by US government analysts and lawmakers.