Iran has done a lot for Syria, or rather for Bashar Assad and the Syria that the current president was desperately trying to save. As you can see, quite successful, but not always. The power of Damascus does not extend to the entire territory of the country; nevertheless, without Iran, Assad would not have what he has now.
The first who came to him were the Iranians. They gave money, weapons and blood. Yes, Iranian soldiers died for the Syrian leader, and this was at a time when even his own officers were leaving for the opposition. But, to be honest, the successes of the brave guards of the Islamic revolution are not great.
Until 2015, despite all their efforts, Assad was persecuted by failure alone. He suffered defeat after defeat and at some point was even close to total collapse – the capital could fall under the onslaught of terrorists. And the Iranians could not do anything about it.
Rescued by Russia, which in a short time secured the capital and threw enemies to the east, which, by the way, later cleared it up. The Iranians breathed more freely and tried on the role of the allies of the Russian Federation. They acted mostly on the ground, while our people used comprehensive measures, but still the air operations were a priority. And this collaboration has proven very effective.
Transactions between countries no longer exist, there is only a military solution.
In short terms, under the onslaught of Russians, Iranians, local Syrian forces and all sorts of volunteers, all the main terrorist forces, and then the opposition, fell. Now only the terrorists who sat down in Idlib remained of the real enemies. The pro-Turkish opposition is also there, but it seems to be inviolable so far. And with the Kurds, issues are unlikely to be solved at all by force, although anything can happen. And now what? It turns out that now there is no special meaning in the Russian-Iranian alliance?
The situation is further complicated by the fact that in addition to Iranians, there are a large number of Hezbollah fighters, who, as you know, are among the most fanatical disseminators of the ideas of the first Iranian ayatollah and its revolution. Their increased influence on the state of affairs in the SAR is already causing discontent among representatives of the local elite, including the Alawite. And for Russia, this grouping in the future may become another headache, at least during the period of post-war settlement, because these people don’t know how to let go of the weapons. And besides, Moscow’s relations with Israel depend a lot on how the Kremlin behaves in relation to Tehran and that Hezbollah itself, around which there is a lot of noise in Israel now. So, apparently, the time has come for the Russian leadership to solve the problem of Iran.
And, probably, in a certain sense, it is already being solved, however, the crudest of all of the possible methods is chosen – the military one. Numerous media outlets in the region – Syrian, Iraqi, Israeli – report that in recent weeks there have been several clashes between Iranian militias and Syrian formations, which are supported by the Russian military. Moreover, even spread information about the Russian attack on some Iranian objects, apparently, warehouses. The aforementioned clashes allegedly occur in the east of the country.
It is difficult to believe in it now, especially as the main sources for the dissemination of such information are people who are somehow connected with the opposition, although there are also independent ones. However, there are many things that speak in favor of the fact that the Russian Federation seeks to weaken the impact on Assad. Previously, we have repeatedly mentioned the Iranian bases disbanded by the Russian military, and there was also serious pressure on Hezbollah, whose fighters were driven out of many Syrian cities and villages. Anyway, apparently, Hezbollah is being tried to be locked in areas bordering its native Lebanon.
Russian political scientist and orientalist Oleg Gushchin believes that in these clashes there is nothing surprising, they could well be, and can happen in the future. Moreover, in his opinion, this was quite expected.
– Otherwise, in principle, it could not be. Because the Iranians launched their people there, the guards of the Islamic revolution, gave them general directives and that’s all. At the same time, it is necessary to understand that these units are not coordinated precisely, as, for example, in our army, by an order from top to bottom and a report from bottom to top. At the same time, the Syrians, contrary to popular belief, do not really like the Iranians themselves. For the simple reason that Syria is the most advanced, secular state in the region. And then Iranians with beards appear and begin to teach life, religion and something else. Not everyone likes it, most are annoyed. This is the first.
The factor of Israel is very important here, because the IDF will bomb Syria further, as long as there are Iranian objects. And here we must somehow remove the Iranians from there or make them behave very restrained. But the question is very complicated, I don’t know how Lavrov and his subordinates get out there, whether they will persuade the Iranians or not, but it is known for sure that it will not be easy.
– So maybe this work will then be entrusted to another minister – Shoigu?
– I do not know for sure. Here such a moment is important – our military are in Syria to help the Syrians, support them, and conduct joint operations with them against enemies. And if at some point the Iranians become their enemies, then in principle everything is clear. And if the Syrians seek help, then they should be helped, nowhere to go. But I think that such clashes here are separate incidents that will not escalate into large-scale clashes. Most likely, everything will be decided at a higher level. In addition, I do not exclude the option of conflicts between field commanders. Still, civil war is their time. Who knows, maybe some Iranian commander didn’t share anything with the Syrian? And rushed.
– It is doubtful that the Russian aviation in these cases would help amateur Syrians.
- Yes, aviation, of course, does not work that way, but our people can certainly help say with bullet cartridges, canned meat and something else in such cases. But in general, the problem can be solved, however, no one is immune from repetitions.