Syria 2.0

Why Damascus does not receive the promised help from Moscow and Turkey?

In Idlib, aggravation began again. In principle, it has not ever stopped, only in recent weeks, success was completely on the side of government and allied forces. But in just a few days, the situation has seriously changed.


The militants, before that, it seemed, were completely demoralized, carried out a number of perfectly organized attacks, without shying away from any methods of warfare. From Damascus, a soldier, civilians, volunteer fighters, and even high-ranking officers die. Terrorists, too, are dying, but they are dying all the time, because for ordinary soldiers of these structures, in principle, this is the task. They are living the last days, and they can be said to be written in the family to die if they are not going to give up. But in Syria, which seemed to have calmed down, everything should become much better for official security officials. There it was.


Idlib, which has already been declared dozens of times as a de-escalation zone, then as a demilitarized zone, is actually still fighting. There is no peace, although Russia and Turkey have long agreed to restore order here. The Turks committed themselves to dismiss the terrorists and opposition with machine guns. It didn’t work out. Russian officials shook their heads – they say it’s bad, and now we will solve the problem ourselves. Nobody has decided so far, although there can be no complaints against our military – they are doing what they are allowed to, and little is allowed – to inflict rare strikes from above and help the Syrians to equip new bases and points. You won’t get out of here, but people are dying. Not only soldiers are killed, but also civilians, who have already been tired a thousand times from such a terrible life. The constant bombing, the life under the yoke of the militants and their fictitious laws disguised as religious doctrine, the death of loved ones and eternal need – who will not get tired of this? And they, by the way, live like this for years.


Well, blaming Assad in this case is also unfair. He was forced to preserve the conflict in Idlib, he was imposed on this status of the province. Moscow and Ankara decided so, now they themselves cannot achieve any meaningful result, but their cooperation in global geopolitical projects is developing. Everyone is happy, only not Damascus and not Syrians.


How the conflict will develop in northwestern Syria, we tried to find out from an external expert representing the interests of the United States, Australian John Blaxland.


– The fact that Syria will be unstable for a long time has become clear a long time ago. Russia acted wisely when it postponed the operation in Idlib. It saved a lot of lives, but the project with Turkey turned out to be a failure. Because the regime, which does not suit what is happening, has become embittered, and now uses not the most humane methods in the struggle even for the smallest villages. Constant shelling takes place, under which very often civilians fall. Yes, from the side of Idlib there are also gunfire and explosions – there really are terrorist groups, but many of those who are there really want to return their land to normal life. It would be very reasonable to start a dialogue with them. Turkey still agrees with this idea, but it seems that now in Syria the Kurds are most concerned with it, therefore the opposition is only concerned with the problems of the opposition, and it is weak and cannot fully influence what is happening.


– So it turns out that attacks on Damascus-controlled positions are occurring because of this?


– Firstly, they happen because it is a war. This is wartime, and what is happening there now cannot be called nonsense. Another clash. Secondly, yes, there are enough supporters of dialogue among the opposition and they would not want to aggravate the conflict with the regime. But these people have no influence on terrorist groups.


– But does anyone have an influence on them?

  • First you need to determine who we attribute to terrorist groups. Turkey has a great influence in Idlib, but its views on who the terrorist is are different from those of France, for example, or Russia. There are several formations that all countries attribute to the threat. For example, the Islamic State or Jebhat al-Nusra, but this is not enough, because we are dealing with dozens of different groups.

some of which are purely political, others support the armed uprising since 2011, others fight exclusively for money, that is, they are mercenaries and so on. Perhaps an international group of experts is needed here to determine the terrorist threat of a particular formation.

  • That is, is there no real opportunity to solve the problem of terrorism in Idlib? If it is resolved, then in fact the war will end there.
  • No, now due to the big problems in the relations of foreign states present in Syria, it will not work out with this situation. And I would not say that getting rid of the terrorists, we will solve the problem of Idlib. No, in parallel it is necessary to change the attitude of the regime towards integrated territories. If you look at the south-west that the regime took over last year, you will find that there have been virtually no changes – the economy is in decline, the standard of living is very low, and crime is still high. To help Syria, we must do than just defeating the terrorists.