Recently, all the attention of the world press is focused on western Syria. There are many reasons for this. The first of them – the events in Ghuta, there was everything. The chemical attack, which was possibly fake, the “fake” about the death of hundreds of Americans, and a humanitarian catastrophe, and fierce battles, as well as a peace agreement. Then there was the rapid onset of the Russian-Syrian allies on the “cradle of the revolution” – as many call the province of Dar’aa, with mass protests in which, in fact, the civil war began in the SAR. Then there was Quneitra, where serious friction arose with the Israelis, because they control its western part. Then there was no conflict. And then the months of Idlib suffering began.
There were all kinds of predictions announced, politicians and journalists wrote and said all possible things. This was due to the uncertainty that emanated from Damascus and Moscow. The first one constantly threatened to attack and mercilessly destroy all terrorist and opposition gangs. The second was relatively soft, but sometimes it still echoed its Arab partner. And President Assad could even declare readiness for negotiations on the day when his servicemen fought on the outskirts of Idlib for some village. In general, there was something to talk about.
However, in mid-September, Putin and Erdogan met, and then everyone was surprised. They preferred the peace, albeit not the most reliable, but still. And this is, in fact, a very important event. Interestingly, everything was arranged and it seemed that calm would prevail in the west of the SAR. But no, not far from that same Idlib the Syrians shot down our plane because of the actions of the Israeli F-16. So, in the west of Syria, tranquility will triumph soon. And this excitement spread to the long-forgotten by all eastern Syria.
There, after the incident with the downed Russian plane, active movements of the Russian and Iranian military began. This is probably due to the general plan to strengthen our interactions with the Persians, who, as you know, have previously shown dissatisfaction with the inaction of their allies.
In Abu Kemal everything was the same. Only here the Iranians were bombed not by the Israelis, but by the United States and many of their coalition partners. Looks like it’s time to end this. Local sources report that a group of Russian military on armored personnel carriers and trucks drove into the settlement. Their base is right next to the Iranian. At the moment it is difficult to identify this group. Some opposition Syrian media attribute them to the official Russian armed forces. Other sources call them the new “ISIS-Hunters”. Earlier this was the name of a group of volunteers consisting of Russians and Syrians and engaged in the extermination of ISIS militants in certain areas, as well as the protection of especially important objects. Still others argue that this is another detachment of “Wagnerites”.
By the way, the mentioned “ISIS-Hunters” were also created by the “PMCs of Wagner”. It is known that representatives of the Coalition are informed about the transfer of additional Russian forces to Abu Kemal. Before that, there was also a small group of our fellow citizens here, though they didn’t interact too closely with the Iranians, so nothing is known about the victims on their part.
It seems that Moscow has decided in this way to protect the Persians from constant American attacks. There is simply no other explanation – there is now no one to fight for a big reason, even though a small portion of the Euphrates coast controlled by ISIS is located nearby. With a pseudochaliphate, the Kurds and the United States end here, because the remnants of terrorists are operating on the eastern bank of the Euphrates, but our military is not allowed in there.
Does this really help the Iranians? Or perhaps there are some other goals for this unexpected transfer of forces?
Russian orientalist Oleg Guschin believes that this may be unreliable information, but does not exclude such a possibility.
- The fact that these are regular parts – I strongly doubt it. 90% sure that this is not regular troops. If this is PMCs, then, of course, they will not cover Iranians, they will not cover anyone at all. Private military companies perform strictly assigned tasks, they would hardly have been put there as nannies or supervisors. The fact that they are located next to the Persians is not surprising. Maybe just the infrastructure is more convenient.
As for the cover, this is a very bad cover, the Americans might think, why not to bother them together with the Iranians. But there is one “but.” I know for sure that the interaction between Russian military and the Americans in Syria on the ground is at a much higher level than among the highest-ranking officials. The latter do the show, and at the level of the majors and colonels it is possible to negotiate and interact perfectly. Any Russian colonel can easily pick up the phone and call his American colleague and discuss all his questions, even though Abu-Kemal, at least in any other area that falls within their area of responsibility. In Abu Kemal, they simply touch and, of course, they have to more often discuss what is there and how. Naturally, if our people really went to Abu Kemal, then the Americans would be informed about it.
- Is there such confidence? Perhaps, by the way, this was also done at the request of the United States, so that our military could somehow influence the Iranians and restrain them. Still, eastern Syria is not quite Russian, there the Americans are implementing their projects, and we seem to have accepted this. And the Iranians may be too active, which somehow harm our agreements with the States. But I still think that the Ministry of Defense would hardly have sent there large forces.