Americans move terrorists to Afghanistan, Tajikistan, closer to Russian borders.
“Islamic state” for the USA is as a playful child — they slap it with one hand, and the other strokes the head. Its own, native, originated by the Americans themselves and originated in Iraq, as a tool for achieving their own goals in the region by stirring up violence on religious grounds. That is such a strategy of “creative destruction” for the Middle East, in which all means are good. And people including, for example, the leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was held at the American military base after 2001, was released, in 2005 he appeared in US intelligence reports as an al-Qaida appointee, in 2011 for his head, the State Department promised $ 10 million. They say that he is still alive.
In general, if the United States asserts something about the IS, then this is done not unfoundedly, but with knowledge of the matter, and even the affairs themselves planned. So the reference to the report prepared by the Pentagon (according to the NBC television channel), in which “the seizure of IS of territories in Syria is“ not excluded ”in less than a year, is not unreasonable. And either the quarterly document on the course of Operation Unshakable Resolve was compiled by the Office of the Inspector General of the US Department of Defense at the right time, or the military intelligence conducted a “stuffing”, but the message that the IS militants are trying to restore the “caliphate in physical form” had to be on time.
Accurately placed and accents, they say, the Syrian authorities will not enter into open confrontation with the jihadists, if the militants will not threaten the government infrastructure. Let those who the United States and its allies have been conducting a military operation in Iraq and Syria since 2014 will “live” (Damascus did not give permission for this). It means that all the efforts to nothing and the victory over IS declared last December by President Trump must be completed. Who would doubt that the United States will not leave Syria! Now Trump, who ordered his soldier to return home, suspended this “demobilization” for four months, under “newly discovered circumstances” in general can radically change the decision on the withdrawal of troops.
Actually, not about this, but about the “Islamic State” itself, about which victory was declared by both Russian President Putin and American Trump. Where is the “defeated” IS, which consisted of at least 8 million people, of which only in Syria, according to various estimates, there were from 80 to 200 thousand “active bayonets”. Columns with prisoners and surrenders were not particularly observed, no one demonstrated the mountains of tens of thousands of militants, even in spite of the successful “pinpoint” strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces and demonstratively false bombardment of US aircraft. Nevertheless, a large part of the territory has been won back from the IS and their presence in Syria seems to be no longer considered at all. Dissolve? Hid? Out on the “winter apartments”? Not destroyed – for sure.
Now the IS in Syria does not represent a complete picture, either by territorial location or by active participation in the “struggle for the Caliphate” – the puzzle crumbled. But no one says that it can not be collected again, so that the statement of the Americans about their likely return is true. The militants have left Syria, but intend to return. They retained their numbers, weapons, and, importantly, the ideology of Islamism, which they intend to continue to adhere to.
- Like any nationalist movement, and the“ Islamic state ”can be viewed as such, it’s almost impossible to win and many states have come across this, – said political scientist and historian Alexander Zimovsky.
– Recall homegrown Bandera in Western Ukraine, which seems to have been eliminated over ten years by law enforcement and state security officers. Bandera lost the support of the local population, went into the deep underground, many emigrated, but the ideology, as it turned out, was preserved. Somehow, albeit the few “veterans” saved in the chests the half-decayed form of the SS division “Galicia”, units of the OUN-UPA, in which they now march full-length on all sorts of nationalist parades and parades. And somehow, a new generation of Bandera has quietly grown up, which is now setting its own rules in present-day Ukraine, and streets and avenues are called common names by Bandera and Shukhevych.
Here, of course, there is also a nuance in such a rapid revival of the nationalist movement in Ukraine – they were allowed to “resurrect from the ashes”, moreover, they were encouraged in every way. And if, say, Poland recognized the Volyn massacre, which was organized by Bandera in 1943, as genocide, few people in the USA know about such sad pages of history. In the State Department they saw in Ukrainian nationalists a kind of force capable of influencing the situation in the country, up to the overthrow of the government, and without hesitation they let Bandera on the Maidan off the leash. IS for Washington is exactly the same tool to achieve its goals, but already in Syria. It did not work the first time – they will certainly try again. Therefore, there is no doubt that the probability of the return of the Islamists is great precisely because of their support by third countries and the United States in the first place.
Supporters of the IS is now “emigrated” in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Europe. The “indigenous people” relocated much closer – Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Tunisia, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The “newcomers” returned to the countries from where the main influx of “volunteers” was – to France, Germany and … Russia. Of the approximately 25 thousand immigrants from the former Soviet Central Asian republics, about one and a half thousand have Russian passports. If necessary, the “Russian Legion” can put a lot more people into Syria. If we judge only by the “sleeping cells” of the Islamic State and the regular reports of the FSB about the detained recruiters and “financiers” of the “Islamic State”, we can count not on one thousand jihadists.
According to US military intelligence, there are now at least eight large IS branches around the world, from which militant activities in Iraq and Syria are coordinated. Even with a significant loss of leadership and territory, they can unite into one and pose a serious threat. But this is only a statement of fact.
The USA itself is making considerable efforts to preserve IS. How else can one consider the recent report of the Deputy Minister of the Interior of Russia Igor Zubov that unknown helicopters are transferring militants of this terrorist organization from Pakistan to the border of Tajikistan. Earlier, the Russian ambassador to Afghanistan, Alexander Mantytsky, brought similar information that the US was sending militants from Syria and Iraq to Afghanistan by helicopter with unmarked signs. In October 2018, the Tajik portal Akhbor reported on the transfer to Afghanistan of the “war minister” of IS Gulmurod Khalimov along with six thousand militants. The intended goal is penetration into the territory of Tajikistan.
This is the question of where did the IS go fro Syria? They will practice in Tajikistan for a while. If he is able to overcome the resistance of the CSTO countries (which includes Russia).
The United States managed to do in Syria what our military did not achieve.
The likelihood of attempts to infiltrate terrorists into the territory of this country was also reported on the website of the anti-terrorist center of the American Military Academy of West Point. The expert of this center, Damon Mail, said that “the ISIS loss of territories in Iraq and Syria can lead to the displacement of a significant number of citizens of Tajikistan who are fighting there to their homeland.” He also states that over the past two decades, Tajik jihadists have raised their status among global terrorist groups, which makes it more likely that they will be assisted by larger terrorist organizations and the renewed attention of jihadists to Central Asia. ”
An unpleasant prospect for Russia – Tajikistan is not only an ally and partner, it is also a southern shield covering the strategic direction. And here is another nuance – in Tajikistan, they are preparing for presidential elections (2020), where it is beneficial for Moscow that President Imomali Rakhmon remain for another term. They are preparing for them in the United States, where they consider as a new leader of Tajikistan “their” Muhiddin Kabiri, on whom one can rely in the event of a tense situation in the republic. Chaos and unrest is just capable of provoking the militants of the ISIS, which Washington is ready to apply in its strategy of “coercive power.”
I suppose, the militants of the ISIS will return to Syria. If the US fears this, then it will. Israel has already admitted to supporting ISIS …