Russia could protect the Donbass, but again leave it to the torment

The Kremlin once again does not use the chance for decisive action in the rebel republics.

Ukraine continues its belligerent policy towards the republics of Donbass. In turn, Russia gets a good excuse to protect the people of the long-suffering land from the sluggish war. In the future, Moscow could return to big ambitious projects. But, apparently, the old policy of “neither peace nor war” is closer to the Kremlin.


The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Stepan Poltorak said that the country’s armed forces would continue to fire at localities of the DNR and LNR. Naturally, in the wording that in response to the shelling by the militias.

– We answered the enemy’s fire, we are answering and will be responding, he said during a recent visit to Kharkiv. So he responded to the proposal of the former president of Ukraine, and now the representative of Kiev in the contact group on the Minsk agreements Leonid Kuchma.


Recall recently Kuchma said that in order to solve the problem of the world, the Ukrainian Armed Forces should stop firing on uncontrolled territory. The proposal is as simple as it’s obvious: if you don’t stop the fire, then the implementation of the Minsk agreements is simply out of the question. Moreover, the new president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky constantly emphasizes that the main goal in the Donbass today is putting a cease-fire.


However, Kuchma’s proposal provoked frantic criticism from the former head of state, Petro Poroshenko, the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, Andrei Parubiy. At the same time, some parts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that they occupied several settlements in the so-called “gray” zone and came close to Donetsk, only waiting for an order to attack. All this, like the current words of Minister Poltorak, clearly shows that Zelensky either does not control the situation, or intends to continue the old policy.


I must say that Moscow is well aware of this. Therefore, they are not in a hurry to negotiate with Kiev and even decided to issue Russian passports to residents of Donbass. But what will the Kremlin do if the situation suddenly escalates? Will large-scale fighting begin, many people die? Will he turn to decisive actions, or will he again call everyone to the negotiating table and pretend that you can deal with the Ukrainian authorities?


Andrei Marchukov, a senior researcher at the Institute of Russian History of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the new government in Ukraine will adhere to the same militant policy:


– Now Kiev is sending an unequivocal signal that Ukraine will not try to comply with at least the Minsk agreements signed under Poroshenko. The country has a permanent fixed idea that the Donbass should be returned under the control of Kiev. If Zelensky speaks out for direct negotiations with the DNR and the LNR, gives a clear order not to shoot, then this will cause tough opposition to him by nationalist politicians. In fact, they are very strong, and Poroshenko’s defeat in the elections should not mislead anyone. Still, a quarter of Ukrainians voted for him, which is a lot. In addition, the unpopularity of Poroshenko himself does not abolish the prevalence of nationalist Russophobic ideology in society and, above all, among political elites.


Zelensky, even if he wanted to change the policy, he could not have done it. The struggle around the elections to the Rada and the posts of the Prosecutor General clearly show this. In the political class of Ukraine there are very strong revenge ideas. It is in Russia that the media are trying to imagine that those who voted for Zelensky are tired of war. In fact, no one is thinking about recognizing the republics of Donbass, or about the federalization of Ukraine. Simply, people do not like the protracted situation, and some are completely against the absorption of the DNR by force. So Poltorak announced quite a common point of view. In addition, it is also political pressure on Zelensky with the aim of forcing him to act in the wake, designated by Parubiy, Yatsenyuk and Poroshenko.


– Is it possible that the APU will soon go on the offensive and arrange a full-scale war?


  • As for the “gray” zones, the triumphant reports about the occupation of settlements sound for several years.

– Is it possible that the APU will soon go on the offensive and arrange a full-scale war?

– As for the “gray” zones, the triumphant reports about the occupation of settlements sound for several years. This is done for propaganda purposes. From a military and strategic point of view, this did not lead to anything. The troops took positions, fell under fire, and then rolled back, only without noise and pathos.


  • But entering the “gray” zones is a direct violation of the Minsk agreements.


  • Now there will not be a full-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the entire Ukrainian policy is occupied by others. In addition, there will be an answer. We see that Russia began issuing its passports, the media no longer use the word “self-proclaimed” about the DNR. If Kiev decides to go to war, then Russia can intervene, and Ukrainian troops can retreat even further than they are now. Therefore, it is unlikely that anyone in Kiev will decide on war.

– Maybe it’s time to take advantage of the current situation?

– Zelensky has been nominated by a political class that cannot be called pro-Russian. In addition, it is a protege of the American administration. US profitable to save Ukraine as an anti-Russian state. Zelensky will act as he would be advised. To some extent, he is even less independent than Poroshenko.

  • Will Brussels recognize the Russian status of the peninsula so as not to lose Russian gas?
  • Russian policy towards Ukraine is limited to half measures. On the one hand, they made the right decision to issue passports to residents of Donbass. But with the administration of Zelensky about anything you can not agree. Putting Boyko or Medvedchuk to win is simply pointless. In addition, they are representatives of the same Ukrainian political class as all the rest. By and large, their victory will not change anything.
  • Russia must move towards the creation of Novorossia, the recognition of the republics of Donbass, the granting of Russian citizenship to all residents of Ukraine. I assure you that many people will want to get a passport of the Russian Federation. I do not exclude that even Yarosh could have a Russian passport. But Russia denies very many citizenship, not to mention many residents of Donbass. Although Moscow could easily influence the political choice of the Ukrainians.
  • Political scientist Eduard Popov believes that in the near future Moscow will pursue the same policy towards Ukraine:

– Donbass came out from Ukraine forever, in a historical perspective it will be followed by other regions of Novorossia. But the whole thing is not the next few months.

  • In its policy towards Kiev, Moscow has taken a time-out and is trying not to react to any attacks. On the one hand, Zelensky wants to look like a peacekeeper. On the other hand, there are constant verbal attacks on Russia. Ukraine as shelling the DNR, and continues to do so. Russia, in turn, saves the Donbass from a humanitarian catastrophe, began issuing passports, provides the necessary resources. Apparently, the next few months will not see any changes.