Let’s go back, if you do not mind, to Turkey. Has it already become de facto a theocratic Islamic state? Turkey became the dictatorship of Erdogan, of course, with strong Islamic content, but also with a very strong secular component. Just like our country (Russia), Turkey has existed for decades in the form of a secular regime. She is used to it. There are many more believers than here, simply because it is a country of Islam. And in Islam, as we remember, there are much more active believers than in Christianity. And the religion itself is quite young. Of course, for almost 1,500 years this statement sounds amusing, but it is in a state of boiling, boiling and revolutionary prominences – like those that were in Europe during the religious wars of the 16th century. Maybe you want everything to happen faster, but the speed of the processes in the religious world is almost the same for all faiths.
Erdogan is a man who is certainly a believer, and for him Turkish Islam is one of the components of his neo-Ottoman future. Because, firstly, it is necessary to restore the empire, and secondly, let throughout the world there will be Islam in the correct Turkish form. In this regard, the Islamists of Turkey have greatly increased their influence – especially through the Ministry of Education and the Ministry for Religious Affairs. At the same time, note: as soon as there was competition with the same Gyulen, the scheme of the late General Alexander Lebed immediately worked: “Two birds do not live in one lair” (words addressed to General Anatoly Kulikov in 1996, – Ed.). Yes, Fethullah Gülen and his jamat helped Erdogan defeat the army, trample down the judicial system, change the constitution, displace those and these, take power … And then, in fact, why such an ally? He is too strong. And now Gulen is the main enemy of Recep Erdogan.
Let’s not forget that Erdogan only recently, on June 24 this year, once again won the presidential election in Turkey – in the first round, gaining 52.5 percent. And what we see now is his first steps after the elections. It was said that Erdogan and his oncology were just about to leave for another world, but they talked about this for a long time. I’m more worried about not how he will behave in the near future, but what will happen after him. Erdogan cleanses the political field, including inside its “Justice and Development Party” (AKP). Many of those who could act as competitors to Erdogan have already left the clearing, including his longtime favorite Ahmet Davutoglu (who served as prime minister of Turkey until May 2016 – ed.) – author of the book “Strategic depth” and the very ideas of a new Turkey. Which of the former has remained? Is that Hakan Fidan, standing at the head of special services – the National Intelligence Organization. But everything is clear here: while Stalin is alive, Beria is alive too. Those who know too much, will not be dismissed, it is only necessary to kill him. But while it is necessary.
It is possible that after Erdogan a serious rollback will begin from the current politician, including religiously. In particular, the hunt for the Gula Jamaatists is facilitated by this.
Will there be a pullback back to Ataturk, to secular Turkey? You can not enter the same water twice. Rollback will be in the direction of some other mood. But to what extent this will happen, it is difficult to predict now. Who in Stalin could predict what will happen after Stalin? Could someone have called Khrushchev’s surname? It was not even funny. Erdogan’s repression, of course, is milder than that of our “leader of the peoples”, but this is a colossal repression for Turkey. So Erdogan could well be considered a Turkish Stalin. And to guess about his future and the future of Turkey is not my trade. I’m not a palmist and not a Baghdad thief – I do not know how to see future in the coffee seeds and mutton paddles. It’s a pity the Baghdad thief was a wonderful friend for Khoja Nasreddin. Iran is just such a factor on the planet, somewhere useful for us and somewhere competing with us. Iran is just such a factor on the planet, somewhere useful for us, but somewhere competing with us. Now – about Iran. At the very beginning of the year, we witnessed unrest and a “price revolution” within this always stable state. Is there a risk that a color revolution will come to Tehran under some green banners?
Iranian society does not seem to be what it is usually portrayed. What was quite ridiculously called the “price revolution” was in fact inspired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the riots that were supposed to demonstrate to the supreme leadership that the government represented by Hasan Roukhani does not cope with his duties. That’s why peopl
them long enough. This is the intra-elite competition of the people of Roukhani and people of the IRGC – in the struggle for financial flows and control over the economy. And that’s all! The hopes of the Americans, who inflated these events in the press to unthinkable values, remained hopeful. They cherish them ever since Jimmy Carter said about the “brilliant” phrase about “Ayatollah Khomeini” with “This guy we agreed” and forbade the Shah to liquidate him. In general, all American forecasts on Iran have always been the greatest folly and did not come true in any of the cases. The excitement of December-January is the usual internal struggle. The regime itself is quite stable and controls the situation. If we take into account Donald Trump with his program “to nullify Iran’s oil exports,” now the information is flowing into the press, that Tehran will collapse just about, literally tomorrow. As all countries, one after another, refuse to buy Iranian oil. Of course, this affects Iran, and the information noise raised by the Americans reaches our press. “But our press increasingly views Iran as our ally.” He has never been our ally and will not be. With what demon is he an ally? And no one has allies. I actually still remember the story about the murder of Griboedov (died in 1829 during the pogrom of the Russian embassy in Tehran). Of course, you do not need to hide your wives at the embassy (it is believed that Alexander Griboyedov hid two Armenian women from the harem of the relative of the Shah Allahyar Khan Qajar), but nevertheless the Russian ambassador of Persia was killed without pity. this is our temporary companion and partner; the country with which we maintain relations in the economic sphere is not the largest, in comparison with Turkey or China. What is our alliance? Well, when you need to close a hole on the Syrian fronts, you can use the pro-Iranian Shiite militia, from which only Hezbollah fights decently. Yes, it’s better than dragging our servicemen back to Afghanistan, once in Afghanistan. But this is temporary cooperation. The fact that aggressive American trade policy makes our interests with Iran coincide on many issues is also true. But if Iran needs to forget about Russia in its own interests and communicate only with Americans and Europeans, he will do it. With whom has Iran signed contracts for the supply of hundreds of aircraft? With Airbus and Boeing, and not with Russia. Calculations of what we are now selling to the Iranians in a huge number of our Superjet are not worth a penny. The Iran is just such a factor on the planet, somewhere useful for us, and somewhere with us it is competing. With us, the Iranians did not fight in the 90’s, their sphere of influence is the Shiite world. They tried to establish their influence in our country, including on the Sunni territories. In the same Bashkortostan, the influence of the Iranians could be seen on the example of local villages, but this was soft influence. To create in the Russian Federation a springboard for any Hezbollah, as in Iraq or Syria, the Iranians have never tried. And for this they have a special thank you. But everyone in Iran remembers that this country was going to be divided, that as early as the beginning of the 20th century, the good half of Iran – both the Caspian region, and Shiraz, and much else – was to become part of the Russian Empire. That in 1943, on the basis of these treaties, we occupied half of the country, and the Americans – the second half. Therefore, there are no particularly warm feelings for us there, as in Turkey. With the difference that in all Turkish dictionaries call Russians as “Moscow Gyaur” (not the most complimentary term), but the Iranians do not. But they also remember whose princess was stoked by Stenka Razin. History evolved so much: everyone was eager to win. Therefore, all of our south is either a former Iran, or a former Persia. Moreover, under Petra Mazandaran and Gilan were part of the Russian Empire (returned a little more than 10 years later). But there was still a “big Iran”, which stretched to Central Asia – the Iranian-speaking zone. Now nothing is left of it, except for Tajikistan. So I would not refer as an ally either to Turkey, or to China, or to Iran. Even our stakes on the “fraternal,” yesterday Soviet, socialist Ukraine went to rubble and fell into the tartaras, although it seemed absolutely impossible. Around us we see the dissolving post-Soviet space. Look at it and think.