The war between Russia and Ukraine has never been so real. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are on full alert, according to the website of the Defense Ministry. Today, November 26, the Verkhovna Rada will consider Petro Poroshenko’s request to impose martial law in the country for a period of 60 days, which can then be extended.
The decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) “on the introduction of the legal regime of martial law” was taken during an emergency meeting on the evening of November 25. According to the head of the National Security and Defense Council Alexander Turchinov, the military office “stated that the attack of the Russian military on Navy ships is nothing but an act of military aggression.”
Poroshenko noted that martial law does not mean immediate mobilization of the population, but represents only “the preparation of military service of the first stage.” At the same time, he made a reservation that the new legal regime “does not mean a declaration of war.”
– Ukraine has no plans to fight anyone, – the Ukrainian president assured compatriots.
However, the martial law will affect all residents of Ukraine. Local media are already “deciphering” in what way. Among other things, rights and freedoms of citizens may be restricted, labor service imposed, rationing of food and medicine supplies, expropriation of property for military needs, etc.
Political implications may be most significant, since elections at all levels, including the presidential 2019, will be canceled and referendums prohibited. Political power will be concentrated in the hands of President Poroshenko and the head of the Supreme National Security Council Turchinov, who in 2014 showed himself to be the most determined supporter of the war with Russia. That s weird that the one respinsible for the security is so mucj for the war.
The cancellation of the election does not look fatal for Poroshenko, since according to polls by sociologists, he is only the fourth largest candidate for the presidency. The level of his support is two times lower than that of the leader, Yulia Tymoshenko, who the day before accused the current authorities of the crisis and in fact presented her electoral presidential program.
According to the editor-in-chief of Strana.ua Igor Guzhvy, it’s not so much about martial law as about the attempted coup d’état that Poroshenko and his inner circle planned to avoid shameful defeat in the elections and retain their power.
The confrontational scenario chosen by Poroshenko has already found support from Kiev’s allies in the West. Canada, Lithuania and Estonia made condemnations of Russia. NATO and the EU are more cautious – urged the parties to show restraint. However, in Kiev, they do not lose hope of drawing these structures into conflict on their side. This follows from the words of the Foreign Minister of Ukraine Pavel Klimkin.
Russia also intends to act at the international level. Moscow has already requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council on the situation in the Sea of Azov. The incident was a premeditated provocation, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated its position. Earlier, the FSB promised to make public the evidence of this fact.
In the meantime, the detained Ukrainian boats were bumped into a parking lot in Kerch. The crew members injured as a result of their capture are under the protection of the special forces of the Border Guard Service of the Federal Security Service of Russia in the Kerch hospital.
Political scientist Alexander Asafov told about the possible goals of provocation on the Sea of Azov and its political consequences for Ukraine and Russia.
- Despite the fact that the media are now writing about the consideration of the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) at 16.00, the question of introducing, or not imposing martial law, the matter is almost solved. The fact is that the previously adopted law on the reintegration of Donbass implies the imposition of martial law in certain areas of the Ukrainian state without coordination with the Verkhovna Rada, but only by Poroshenko’s will, with the support of the National Security Council. There is support for the National Security and Defense Council, Poroshenko’s will too. So martial law is most likely a given. I would estimate the probability of its introduction in 90 percent.
– What are the reasons for such an escalation right now?
– This is due to the recent publication of the ratings of candidates for the presidency in 2019, where Poroshenko is not very good performance. And even the probability of reaching the second round is not very high. So it was decided to influence the situation in this way.
Obviously, all previous incidents – the arrest of the ship Nord, the Mechanics of Pogodin, the detention of 15 ships — all were attempts to provoke Russia into tough retaliatory actions. Finally, the last trump card of Kiev was thrown.
- What will happen now?
– Since all the “talking heads” of Kiev have already expressed themselves, it is clear that the situation is difficult and will develop. Any actions of Russia in the Azov water area will lead to new sanctions against our country and to an aggravation of the discussion in the UN Security Council. Now one by one, his extraordinary meetings will begin. All this will serve as a new basis for the next unfriendly actions of our Western partners in the context of heightened geopolitical competition. After all, it is clear that it is impossible to exploit the topic of Skripale for a long time without having evidence. The Crimean factor is already outdated. A new excuse is needed. “Aggression” of Russia in the Sea of Azov with any outcome, regardless of the termination or non-termination of the agreement on the general use of its water area, whether our Ukrainian ships are released or not, will lead to new attacks on Russia. Moreover, the new measures may be bigger than the previous ones.
Then the elections will not be postponed. By the way, Trump tomorrow, November 27, will need to introduce new anti-Russian sanctions that await him from the US Congress and Senate. Here, he received additional grounds for this. I think that now our opponents in the Congress will start talking about a package of sanctions comparable to the Iranian one.
- Do the Americans need the elections in Ukraine to be held and there is a legitimate president?
By and large, they don’t care what happens in Ukraine. Everything would happen in the same context as now. Therefore, when making rainbow forecasts that when Yulia Timoshenko comes and everything changes in Ukraine, this is a mistake. Americans do not care what name the President of Ukraine bears, if only he retains the anti-Russian destructive discourse, which in the future can become anti-European. We see that the relations between the USA and the countries of old Europe are not very good and Ukraine can become an effective lever of pressure in all parties. Therefore, Washington is interested in maintaining the status quo. They are not interested in economics, industry, etc. They like that you can maintain a degree of hatred towards Russia for promises and handshakes — you don’t even have to pay. Therefore, the Americans do not yet have a decision on the elections and the candidacy. Poroshenko and Tymoshenko are equally pleasant to Washington. The main thing is that both are against Russia.
– Americans can and still but to applicants for the Ukrainian “throne” – no. Actions of Poroshenko, are called “coup” by many. Do you agree with this assessment?
- To apply such a term is possible only by comparing the story with Erdogan’s “coup”, which, according to some sources, was initiated by him in order to maintain his power. Poroshenko’s instigated provocation, which is interpreted as Russia’s aggression, can really secure him in power under a similar scenario. In this case, the state system will be replaced by a more authoritarian, Pinochet like, which, as they say, Poroshenko dreams about. But in general, almost everyone is engaged in the violation of the Constitution. This is nothing extraordinary. A coup d’état has already occurred in 2014, and started the lasting civil war in the east.