The comrade of the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada ( Ukraine Parliament) Semen Semenchenko, the militant of the national battalion “Donbass” Vyacheslav Vlasenko called to go on the offensive against the republics of Donbass in order to “stop” Russia in the Sea of Azov.
“There is no time to delay. In order to immediately stop the “creeping” annexation of the Sea of Azov from the Russian Federation, in addition to maritime resistance, we must immediately begin the offensive of our troops on land. Otherwise we will lose the Sea of Azov, Mariupol and the whole Donbass, ”Vlasenko wrote on his Facebook page.
The call of the militant caused heated debate. The Ukrainian Navy soldier Andrei Ivanichenko expressed doubts about the possibility of an offensive.
“There are no formed groups for an offensive; this will not help in counter assault respect.” Let the enemy break his teeth about our defense, ”he suggested.
And it would be possible to dismiss such “belligerent discussions” of Ukrainian “cyborgs” in social networks, if numerous informative communications of recent days did not suggest that in this case, paraphrasing the well-known saying, “what servants have in the tongue, the rulers have on their mind.”
The other day, on the Ukrainian Media Network, Deputy Director General of the Medjlis ATR Channel, Ayder Muzdabayev, and Ukrainian journalist, Novaya Gazeta correspondent in Ukraine, Olga Musafirova, said in one voice that the population of the two main Ukrainian ports on the Azov Sea – Berdyansk and Mariupol – “ waiting for the arrival of Russian “. According to them, Kiev may lose control over the part of the Zaporozhye region adjacent to the Sea of Azov.
On October 25, as is known, the European Parliament “expressed concern about the unstable security situation in the Sea of Azov, which can easily escalate into open conflict.”
In the document, where not a word is mentioned about the seizure by the Ukrainian border guards of the Russian vessel “Nord”, the growing “militarization of the water area on the part of Russia” is called aggression against Ukraine. Anxiety in Europe caused the possibility of seizing the Ukrainian oil and gas fields, as well as the transformation of Azov into the inland Russian sea. And, of course, MEPs threaten Russia with new sanctions.
Against this background, Kiev may have the idea that “foreigners will help us, the West is with us.” President of Ukraine Poroshenko, of course, is unlikely to decide to launch hostilities against the Russian Navy on Azov or a large-scale offensive in order to destroy the DNR (Donetsk Republic) and the Lugansk Republic. But to hold a “small victorious blitzkrieg” in order to capture the only port of the DNR on the Sea of Azov, Novoazovsk, would be very useful for him on the eve of the presidential election.
In this area of the Donetsk front to the border with Russia there are less than three dozen kilometers. Thus, one successful military operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can cut off the DNR from the Sea of Azov, which Ukrainian propaganda will immediately present as “peremog” over Russia’s cunning plans to seize the entire Azov coast, and at the same time as evidence of the “increased power of the Ukrainian army”.
– In recent days, we are again seeing aggravation practically on the entire front line in the DNR and the LNR,” said Vladimir Orlov, an expert at the Center for Military-Political Journalism.
– Donbass defenders, as well as civilians, are being killed and wounded again.
At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities are striving in every way to aggravate the domestic political situation. Recently, some sweeps of “separatist elements” were announced in the front-line zone of Donbass, controlled by the Poroshenko regime.
As for the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in one of the areas on the line of contact with the people’s militia of Donbass, right now I see no prerequisites for it. This does not mean that the situation cannot change in a month or even in a couple of weeks.
The closer to the elections, the more Poroshenko is in the hands of even local success in the Donbass. And he would gladly launch an offensive with the aim of cutting off the DNR from the Sea of Azov. But he will do it only if he is given guarantees in the West that his offensive will be supported and Russia will not be able to intervene.
However, Poroshenko remembers the story of ex-Georgian President Saakashvili, who apparently also received some guarantees from the West on the eve of the attack on South Ossetia. What came of this, we all know.
He stated unequivocally that an attempt to destroy the DNR and the LNR would have the most serious consequences for the entire statehood of Ukraine. It’s not the first time for the West to leave its “satellites” to the mercy of fate.
- Does the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a technical opportunity to capture the same Novoazovsk? It is generally accepted that the Ukrainian army, both numerically and in quality, is superior to the people’s militia of the two republics. If we speak in a purely military language, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can break through the defenses of the militia of the Donbas republics through 5–6 days to the state border of the Russian Federation. What is the price — is a separate question. But if we compare the purely military characteristics of the parties, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for the time being, are in a better position. Not to mention the numerical superiority, the Ukrainian army in recent years has been increasing its combat capability by improving the quality of weapons. This is evidenced by objective data, including from Russian side. It is enough to look at the information shared by the famous military director Alexander Sladkov and other journalists who are often on the front line. Almost all over the Ukrainian positions are stuck with video cameras with good optics, thermal imagers, allowing to monitor the situation with the movements of the enemy at night. That is, the Ukrainian military have a very clear idea of what is happening on the front line and in the near rear of the military DNR and LNR. In difficult areas of the front, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have at least handicraft production, but robotic platforms with guided machine guns. The Ukrainian military also has a considerable number of unmanned aerial vehicles. These are also mostly not the most advanced, semi-professional models, but they fully fulfill the function that they should perform – they conduct aerial reconnaissance. And it should be noted that, despite the fact that the militia sometimes shoot down 3-4 Ukrainian UAVs a week, their number in service with the Ukrainian Armed Forces is growing. That is, we are seeing a constant increase in the military potential of the Ukrainian army, which is not the case with the Donbass people’s militia. If we talk about thermal imagers, for example, the current defenders of the DNR and LNR are forced to use what they managed to capture from the Ukrainian military back in 2014. Donbass republics do not have video cameras to monitor the enemy, there are not enough modern sniper rifles.
– This superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as military equipment can convince Ukrainian generals that they can carry out an operation to take Novoazovsk in such a short time that even Russia will not have time to react?
– I would not rule it out. Of course, one exponential successful operation against the DNR is beneficial to the Kiev regime from all sides. It is also necessary for Western sponsors to show that their money is not wasted, and to present their electorate with any serious victory over the “separatists of Donbass” and the “aggressor from the east.”
– I don’t see any special military, and political sense in the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for in the south of the DNR, says Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries.
– If necessary, the republic may have access to the Azov Sea and through the territory of Russia. And in order to capture the same Novoazovsk, the Ukrainian army will have to suffer a lot.
DNR and LNR. On the whole, all these cries about the seizure of the Sea of Azov by Russia are cheap propaganda. No matter how many times in Kiev they shouted that ships with cargoes from Ukrainian ports have been inspecting them for a long time and incorrectly, not a single vessel has been seized by Russia in the way that Ukrainian border guards have done with Nord. It is clear that Poroshenko’s PR managers must constantly escalate the situation so that by the time of the election the electorate has a full feeling that Ukraine is living in a besieged fortress. At all that, Poroshenko’s regime is afraid to deploy military actions, especially after Putin made it clear that this Russia will not be left unanswered. Therefore, militant statements are used, the European Parliament also plays along with it. But for all that, Poroshenko will not decide on a military operation, even with a local goal, to cut off the DNR from the Sea of Azov, since it is completely unclear how this can end.