Turkish newspaper En Son Haber claims that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the last weekly meeting of his cabinet of ministers informed his colleagues that his meeting with Russian President Putin will take place soon. The leader of the Jewish state confirmed its position on the tragedy of the IL-20. He calls the culprit exclusively of the air defense forces of the SAR, so Moscow should demand only an apology from Damascus for “friendly fire.”
At the same time, according to En Son Haber, both sides are interested in discussing issues related to the security of the Israeli and Russian military in Syria. True, the date of the meeting announced by Tel Aviv has not yet been named, however, Bibi (Netanyahu’s nickname) has already prepared a negotiation agenda.
In particular, well-informed US media, citing their experts, believe that Netanyahu would prefer to negotiate a deadline with Putin, after which Israel will try to recover the keys to the Syrian sky. In other words, as soon as the Russian instructors leave the air defense system of the SAR, the IDF air force and the US fighters will begin their destruction. Or, in any case, they will take active steps in this direction.
The Pentagon began to transfer to the UAE additional F-22 to suppress the “Favorites” transferred to Assad.
If we recall the meeting in the Kremlin held in early October on the issue of transferring the S-300 ZRS to Syria, then the President of the Russian Federation at a meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council gave a hint to the Jewish side. He asked Shoigu a question: “How long will it take to train the crews and crews of the Syrian army to work on the S-300?”. The answer of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation was laconic: “Three months”.
It is unlikely that the head of our state and the head of the defense department did not pronounce the details of this dialogue, which was specially announced to the public through pro-government media. The political effect, as you know, was a resonant one. In this regard, Israel and the United States have made official statements that they are considering all ways to eliminate S-300PMU2 batteries that ended up in the SAR air defense system. However, over the past week, the IDF fighters did not undertake raids on new launchers.
Thus, Putin was heard by Netanyahu: Russian military specialists are working on the S-300 systems transferred to Damascus, at least until January 2019. Clearly, in conjunction with the Syrian calculations. Consequently, before the deadline, the attacks of the IDF Air Force against the batteries of the Favorit under the conditions of the Russian “human shield” are unlikely.
In turn, Israel categorically does not like the situation when the new capabilities of the air defense system of the SAR go beyond the existing rules to prevent conflicts between the Russian and Jewish military. In addition, the S-300PMU2 systems connected via computer lines to the S-400 and S-300V4 complexes located at Khmeimim airbase dramatically increase the capabilities of the more modest, in technical terms, Syrian batteries.
Now Tel Aviv has to choose between “bad” and “very bad” developments. The IDF is confident that attempts to return the keys to the Syrian sky in the forehead will turn into new supplies of Russian weapons to Damascus. We are talking about the “Buk-M3” and MiG-31 fighters, the appearance of which in the Assad troops is called extremely dangerous for Israel.
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With what offers the leader of the Jewish state will go to Moscow?
First, Netanyahu will apparently ask Putin to conclude a “gentlemen’s agreement”, according to which the information coming through the deconflicting line between the IDF and the Russian Defense Ministry will not be transferred to the Syrian side. In Tel Aviv, we are confident that Moscow is protecting not so much its ally in the person of Assad, but its national interests. Just as the United States made an “boil” of Ukraine near the borders of the Russian Federation, Russia also earns political and economic dividends in the Middle East.
Secondly, Israel insists that the Russian Federation abandoned the idea of transferring to the Syrian air force new Mig-31 fighters and additional Buk-M3 air defense systems, according to which scenario events in the SAR would not develop. Since the potential in this regard, the strengthening of Iran in the birthplace of Assad is unprofitable and Russia. In other words, Washington will have to reckon with strong Persia sooner or later, therefore, Moscow will have to forget about the current oil prices. It would be unpleasant to realize this, but there is some truth in this argument.
Thirdly, Tel Aviv really wants the RF Ministry of Defense not to connect Syrian S-300PMU2 batteries to a computer network looped on the S-400 air defense system in Hamim. Otherwise, the Syrian anti-aircraft gunners will t possess information about all aircraft at a distance of up to 600 km from the batteries, although the Favorites see up to 195 km. As the “SP” has already written, only American F-22 aircraft based in the United Arab Emirates can become the final argument in a dispute with new Syrian anti-aircraft batteries. The third “request” of Israel largely repeats the US desire to bomb the Syrian S-300 batteries with aircraft F-22, as overseas experts have some secret information, that radars of the “Favourite” air defense missile system of the PMU2 models are unlikely to find Raptor. At the same time, “against a slower, more low-flying and less secretive F-35 fighter in this weapon platform is significantly more likely to be successfully targeted.” Whether the spies mined “something important” for the United States, the American analysts thought themselves out, but the fact remains: The States bet on the F-22. Who knows, maybe the Pentagon wants to revive the production of Raptor, and here such a case has turned up.
Moscow, most likely, will provide Assad’s anti-aircraft gunners with dosed information about Syria’s “far sky”. Whatever it is, but de facto Netanyahu is going to our capital to twist Putin’s hand. Here, the president of the Russian Federation faces a difficult choice: not to lose face in the face of Russian officers whose comrades died because of the IDF pilots, and to maintain “useful contacts” with the leader of Israel, who has connections with Wall Street and Moscow-City. Like it, or not, but we have to reckon with the economy. On the other hand, much will depend on the November elections to the US Congress. If the seat under Trump staggers, it is difficult to wait for any concessions from the Russian leadership. Then the “downed political pilot” will be the current head of the Israeli Cabinet. Therefore, Moscow, for certain, will choose a waiting position, having promised Netanyahu to think over its offers.