Russian officials, discussing the topic of Syria, have recently been increasingly called Idlib the most problematic area of the Arab Republic. Partly the way it is. The fact is that Idlib for Moscow is something like a splinter. If everyone has forgotten, then we recall that in early September, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and the Syrian allies made grandiose plans to seize the rebellious governorate.
By the way, this governorate is occupied not only by militants of relatively moderate armed opposition, but also by terrorists who do not hide their views. For example, Dzhebhat an Nusra here manages dozens of localities. And all of this den Moscow and Damascus were going to disperse, starting a major offensive operation.
The troops were pulled in large numbers, and the special forces even managed to make war in Latakia, on the outskirts of Idlib, where the Turkoman allies of the Al Nusra Front were stationed. At the same time, the terrorists were not going to surrender just like that – their leaders did not just promise an effective response, they intended to organize a campaign on the capital. And while all this hype was going on, the Turks took the situation completely under their control. As a result, Erdogan convinced Putin of the need to create a demilitarized zone around opposition territories. The war is postponed, and the popularity of the Russian Federation among the Syrian elite is falling. But for now everyone is forced to put up with the dictates of the Kremlin, despite the gradually growing discontent. In general, it is quite understandable why for Moscow Idlib is the most problematic area of Syria.
Without the United States, Moscow and Ankara will unleash a war for northern Syria
But for many other foreign participants in the Syrian slaughter there are much more painful regions. For example, for the USA and Turkey it is one and the same part of the country – northern Syria. The Turks and Americans can not agree on the future of the possessions of Kurdish separatists. The first though to destroy the self-proclaimed state of Rozhava, and the second intend to protect it. And there is no end to the disputes, but so far Ankara is working more aggressively, which is why some fruits are reaping – for example, northern and north-western Aleppo under its full control. But Uncle Sam was going to withdraw soldiers from the ATS. In any case, Trump still insists on this, despite the comments of various US officials contradicting his position. And this news is very disturbed by all who oppose Bashar Assad. Almost half of the countries in the region, and some European countries began to persistently urge Washington not to resort to radical measures. But most of all the Kurds got alarmed. It is understandable – without a handful of Americans, their thousands of detachments of people’s self-defense are unlikely to be able to oppose the Turkish army, which intends to launch an offensive in the coming weeks, or even days.
Sad, and besides, very confusing. The strangeness of this story was added by the recent terrorist attack in Manbija. Yes, this is the same city that Ankara intends to capture as early as the third or fourth month. Here, in conjunction with the Kurds, the Yankees are in charge. These are the Yankees and suffered. Four US servicemen killed, three seriously injured. There are civilian casualties, but for some reason, this doesn’t bother anyone now – the Americans are dead! Turkish media even published an explosion video.
And then the question arises how the Pentagon will react to this. The Islamic State assumed responsibility for itself, reporting this through its media. It turns out that Washington and Donald Trump personally are confounded – after all, the latter explained the need for the withdrawal of troops by victory over ISIS. Something did not work, since the Americans continue to die. However, there are other versions of what happened.
Turkish expert Keram Yıldırım believes that the Islamic state is not necessarily involved in this story.
– It is necessary to consider several versions. Yes, the Islamic state is still active, and in Aleppo it periodically made itself felt, but such acts of terrorism have not been seen for a long time. Of course, it is known that among the Kurds there were and are supporters of the IS, but their number is small, especially in Manbidzh. As for Abu Yasin al-Shami (allegedly a man with that name committed the attack, using the “shahid belt”). Nothing is known. Maybe someone will investigate, although there are big doubts. In the conditions of Manbij, when the war does not start today or tomorrow, few people have any business to this. In this version there is a big question – why should an Islamic state commit a terrorist attack in Manbidzh?
US military organized the bombing of Syrian government positions
– And why?
- There are no enclaves in this city and in the vicinity.
Now for the IS all the problems are concentrated in Deir ez-Zor, where the US almost destroyed the remnants of their (terrorist) States – Hadjin, their capital, was taken from them. It is unreasonable to spend forces and resources on organizing a terrorist act in remote areas. In this regard, it is worth considering another version. The attack could have been organized by people associated with the terrorist organization of the PKK or its Syrian representative office (talking about the people’s self-defense detachments, which in Turkey, like the Kurdistan Workers Party, are considered terrorist) go out of Syria. And for terrorists, this rescue – YPG (abbreviation of people’s self-defense detachments from Kurmanji) is afraid of the offensive of the Turkish army, which will take place, but now much depends on how the Americans behave. Even if the responsibility for the terrorist attack lies with ISIS, then there is a possibility that the representatives of YPG asked for it – it is known that these terrorist organizations had contacts in western Syria. For IS, money can become a motivation, because now it’s hard times and even such orders will be profitable. But this is subtlety. The main thing here is that only YPG and PKK are profitable (the abbreviation of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party from Kurmanji). In the near future, we will find out how all this influenced their plans, and then it will be possible to draw more accurate conclusions.