The peninsula will again become part of Ukraine, but on one condition.
The presidential candidate of Ukraine and well-known showman Vladimir Zelensky appreciated the possibility of the return of the Crimea. He stated that he did not know how to make the Crimea Ukrainian if he won the election.
– Crimea will return, we all understand when there will be a change of power in Russia. I have no other choice, – he said in an interview with Ictv.
In addition, Zelensky stressed the need to continue negotiations with Russia, subject to the presence of representatives of the United States and the European Union. He also spoke about the conflict in the Donbass. Zelensky is sure that it is necessary to “start a serious information war and win it,” to convince residents that they were deceived by Russian propaganda. To do this, the government must resume the payment of pensions to citizens of this part of the country.
We will note that the other day Zelensky declared that he considers it possible to make compromises with Russia for the sake of the return of Ukrainian sovereignty over the Crimea and the Donbass. According to him, it is necessary to consider the cultural and linguistic features of the Crimea and Donbass. At the same time, he stressed that “if they had remained with a free and independent Ukraine, they would have received an order of magnitude more rights and freedoms than they could ever have in Russia.”
Earlier, the leader of the pre-election race also called for a return to negotiations in the Budapest format, however, he stressed the need to “return the temporarily occupied territories and force the aggressor to compensate for the damage”. In addition, he urged the need to negotiate with Moscow, ignoring the representatives of the authorities of the republics of Donbass.
The current statement by Zelensky over Crimea was a response to the promise of the current president of Ukraine, Peter Poroshenko, to make the “return” of Crimea a priority task of his new presidential term and implement it immediately after the elections.
Recall that at the beginning of the week Poroshenko said that he would achieve “the return of the peninsula” without bargaining and agreements. According to him, he plans to do this “politically and diplomatically,” that is, by increasing the sanctions pressure on Russia from Ukraine and Western countries, as well as lawsuits.
The “return” of the Crimea was named as one of the priority tasks by the third favorite of the presidential race – the leader of “Batkivshchyna” Yulia Tymoshenko. She even gave a written commitment to do this, while calling a more specific time frame – a hundred days. In case of failure, she pledged to resign.
How are the presidential candidates of Ukraine going to “return” the Crimea and the Donbass?
It is characteristic that none of the candidates, even those who are considered “pro-Russian” in Ukraine and who support negotiations not only with Moscow, but also with Donetsk and Lugansk, do not consider that Crimea is lost for Ukraine, they all promise to make efforts for his “Return. At the same time, the majority of Ukrainians do not believe in promises to “return” the Crimea, at least in the foreseeable future.
According to one of the polls conducted in Ukraine at the end of last year, 42.3% are sure that the “return” of the peninsula is most likely possible, but only in the long term, 20.1% – which is more likely already impossible, 15, 5% – which is absolutely impossible. In the near future, only 5.4% of respondents consider the possible “return” of the Crimea.
In this sense, Zelensky, recognizing the impossibility of “returning” the Crimea, in any case, until radical political changes take place in Russia, manifests sanity, which is not typical of Ukrainian politicians. But how will the voters react to this?
Recall, the presidential election in Ukraine will be held March 31. Zelensky is the leader of the race, according to polls. Poroshenko and Tymoshenko dispute the second and third places.
– All candidates use sociology, and public opinion polls in Ukraine say that the majority of voters are not ready for the final loss of Crimea, – the editor-in-chief of FORUM portal believes. Moscow time Anatoly Baranov.
- Hence the monotonous position of candidates on the peninsula – the voter is the same. Time will pass, the position of the voter will change – the programs of candidates in this matter will become different.
– Speaking of the impossibility of the return of the Crimea in the foreseeable future, Zelensky shows sanity, unusual for Ukrainian politicians. But will his electorate appreciate it?
- I think Zelensky more than others meets the expectations of the Ukrainian voter, not too “wrapped” in politics. The average voter is always and everywhere for sanity, but this word – Speaking about Donbass, Zelensky points out the need to “start a serious information war and win it,” to convince residents that they were deceived by Russian propaganda. How feasible is this?
- The fate of Donbass cannot be resolved by propaganda and counter-propaganda measures, and this is because the Ukrainian authorities turned the civil conflict into an armed confrontation — no one wants to remember that the war began with a decree by the acting president Turchinov, allowing the use of heavy weapons against the population — tanks artillery and aircraft. Now a citizen propagated by Ukrainian specialists will simply be considered a deserter or alarmist at best. And the war is war. Zelensky does not understand that the Donbass is not an election, but a war …
– And how right is Zelensky about the Crimea? Can the peninsula return to Ukraine in case of a change of power in Russia?
- Purely theoretically, if any new Gorbachev comes to power in the Russian Federation, then maybe so. Remember, Gorbachev suddenly decided to restore independence to the Baltics after being in the USSR for half a century. Given that all their independence then counted barely 20 years, from 1920 to 1940, and before such states like Estonia or Latvia did not exist in nature. And the future question of the Crimea is also the question of the nature of power in Russia. If the power in its decisions, as it is today, is not limited by anything and does not depend on the opinion of citizens, then in the future you can expect anything – even though the transfer of Smolensk to Lithuania or St. Petersburg – to Sweden. If in Russia power is finally established that is accountable to the citizens, then such decisions will be impossible in principle.
– What other political upheavals could help Ukraine recover within the borders of 2014?
– The best “cataclysm” of this kind, unfortunately unrealistic, is the coming to power in Kiev of people who are disposed to return to a single state with Russia. Then the Crimean question in general would be removed by itself.
The second positive option is the disintegration of Ukraine into several independent territories, some of which will be oriented to the east, and the creation of a confederation, in which the Donbass will find itself. But the Crimea in this configuration still remains Russian. And the third option is the collapse of Russia’s own, but so far this is not visible at all, except in the inflamed brains of several Ukrainian political scientists, whom no one takes seriously either.
– The Donbass theme is connected with the war, and the war is what allows the current government to write off all its crimes, the collapse of the economy, the decline in living standards, – explains political analyst Alexander Dudchak.
- The cause of all the tragic events in Ukraine over the last 5 years has become the Maidan – an armed coup, with the results of which the majority of the population did not agree, but in most of the territories they managed to suppress discontent. But the following two major competitors in the ratings of the current illegitimate president also campaign in a similar manner. Since the financial and political forces behind them also participated in the coup and crackdown.
– It is worth noting that in Ukraine there are no candidates who would say that the Crimea is gone forever, and we must accept this. Even conditionally “pro-Russian” promise to return it, but in the long term. Why is that? No more adequate guys in Ukraine?
- Conditionally, very conditionally “pro-Russian” try not to talk about it, because they did not support the Maidan and the subsequent war in the Donbas, the forced withdrawal of the Crimea to protect the lives of the inhabitants of the peninsula. But the result of such statements or statements about the need to find a peaceful way out of the situation, to negotiate directly with representatives of the unrecognized republics, may be the initiation of criminal cases under the article “treason”, “separatism”. This is not so much“ sanity ”as it is the contradiction between the position of the West, which means that the problem of Crimea can be“ left for later ”. And this coincides with the opinion of the majority of the population of Ukraine controlled by Kiev – people do not want war, and would prefer to return everything to the state at the end of 2013.
– Will his electorate appreciate such revelations? Will they now declare him a “defendant” and a “defeat”?
– No, they will not announce, except frank Nazis.
- And how adequate are Zelensky’s assumptions about the possibility of a “return” of Crimea in the event of a change of power in Russia?
- He is trying to postpone the problem in a “long box”, to divert claims from himself from the side of the radicals – as if the Russian leadership has scolded, and has removed responsibility from himself. And Zelensky argues in the same style as the current government completely ignores the opinion of the Crimeans themselves. Ukraine could theoretically be reunited in the future with the Crimea as part of a wider integration association. But, if it were not for the Maidan, the Crimea would still be part of Ukraine.