Kiev Blitzkrieg-2018

Russia may not have time to intervene in the new war in the DNR, launched in the Mariupol direction

In preparing for an offensive, the Ukrainian security forces undermine certain sections of roads in the area of ​​the settlements they control in the south of Donbass. About this, referring to intelligence data, the head of the press service of the People’s Police Department of the DNR, Daniil Bezsonov told the newspapers.

– In the light of preparations for an offensive on the Mariupol direction, the Ukrainian security forces have been undermining certain sections of roads in the villages of Slavnoye, Berezovoye and Taramchuk for the third night. We do not exclude that the explosive devices can be used to deliberately detonate vehicles with passengers in order to subsequently accuse us of shelling the territory controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, – he said.

In addition, according to him, this provocation can be used to stop the transport communication of the civilian population on the Mariupol direction before the planned offensive of the Ukrainian troops.

Recall that at the beginning of the week, the deputy head of the People’s Militia of the DNR, Eduard Basurin, said that according to intelligence data, a large Ukrainian military group is preparing to launch a large-scale offensive on Mariupol on December 14. The objective of the operation is to seize the territory of the Novoazovskiy and Telmanovskiy districts and establish control over the part of the border between the Donetsk People’s Republic and Russia in the area of ​​the settlements of Konkovo ​​and Kholodnoye.

Basurin said that the shock group formed by the Ukrainian army consists of more than 12 thousand people and is concentrated along the contact line in the area of ​​settlements Novotroitsk, Shyrokyne, Rovnopol, where there are more than 50 tanks, 40 multiple launch rocket systems, 180 guns and mortars.

– According to the plan of the Ukrainian command, on the morning of December 14, after artillery preparation, the advance units of the 128 and 79 brigades should launch an offensive from the line Granitnoye – Shyrokyne in the direction of the Klinkino settlement with the task to reach the state border of the DPR near the settlements of Konkovo ​​by the end of December 15 and Cold, – warned the deputy head of DNR s militia.

Basurin also said that the reason for the beginning of the armed aggression of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should serve as a terrorist attack committed by the Ukrainian special services in Mariupol. According to this scenario, a storage facility with chemicals will be blown up at the Mariupol Metallurgical Combine named after Ilyich. In this case, the alleged explosion can be carried out using unmanned aerial vehicles adapted to dump mines and hand grenades.

Responsibility for this terrorist attack, the consequence of which would be infection of up to 15 square kilometers and about 50 thousand people, will be assigned to the DNR and active hostilities will be launched as a “response”.

Recall, the DNR reconnaissance has repeatedly reported on provocations being prepared by the Ukrainian side in order to launch an offensive, but most of them were never implemented. In particular, the DNR has repeatedly warned about the possibility of a chemical attack.

What is the probability that nothing will happen this time? And if Poroshenko firmly decided to start a full-scale war on second half of December or on any other day, would he try to use the theme of the acts of terrorism in an industrial enterprise or with the erosion of civilian traffic on the roads? And do we really need occasions?

However, the mining of roads can be interpreted in a different way – that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are afraid of a counterattack by the armed forces of the republics in response to an attempt to attack in this direction. In any case, the actions of the Ukrainian side are talking about preparing for war.

Probably, there may be a logical question: how can you trust such information? The DNR speakers regularly talk about upcoming provocations, referring to the reconnoitered, but no major military operations occur. What does this indicate? Is the Ukrainian side abandoning its plans when they are revealed and made public?

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine refused to disclose information about the route and the purpose of the passage of the country’s naval ships in the Kerch Strait, which led to the detention of ships. The defense department referred to state secrets.

“Rumors about the Ukrainian offensive are constantly spreading in the republics, and quite regularly the next offensive is“ assigned ”to the 14th or 15th number,” commented Lieutenant NM LNR, a fighter of the “Avgust” OMB Andrei Morozov.

People are joking: these days the republics are virtually defenseless, since these are the days of giving money out to the troops. But seriously, such information can speak not only about some provocations, but also that the enemy is preparing to secure the left flank of the southern offensive from a possible counterattack.

As for the question about the plans of the Ukrainian side, in principle, it is incorrectly set. The enemy is completely given the initiative, he has total superiority in forces over the republics. The troops, built in two echelons, on a permanent basis, have at their disposal much more than the republic can “gather in alarm”. You can come up with quite a lot of realistic plans, “merge” them all in turn for our intelligence, and immediately come up with a new one.

– We recently often hear that preparing to strike in a southerly direction. Why there? What is this direction so important?

– If we are not talking about a total offensive, but about operations with limited goals, this is the most obvious and convenient section for such an operation. It allows you to achieve a visible, meaningful and, most importantly, conveniently fixed result within the time limits for which the republics will not have time to pull up reinforcements to this area. Virtually the entire territory of the DNR to the south of Donetsk is a huge steppe, slightly hilly, “tank camp” with a minimum of urban development.

Hold the area, designated as the front of a possible offensive, scanty forces of the 9th regiment of the militia of the DNR and part of the 1st “Slavic” brigade. Nominally, on paper, this is a significant force. In reality, the combat-ready people and equipment are few, the front, as elsewhere, is a band of observation and fortified points, occasionally having full-fledged fire engagement. The situation with technology and people is best illustrated by the September case mentioned several times with the doctors of the 9th regiment, whose car was shot by VSU (Ukraine forces). Instead of a group of strong nurses on a regular armored caterpillar tractor MTLB, a fighter on the Niva went with a pregnant female sanitary instructor to take out the wounded man. That’s about the ratio of nominal and real.

Naturally, there are some reserves at the disposal of the republics. To the north is the 5th “heavy” motorized rifle brigade, nominally having as many as two tank battalions. In the subordinate corps is a separate tank battalion “Diesel”. However, the openness of the area on the southern flank contributes to the use of the Javelin anti-tank missile system by the enemy, the launch range of which would give the enemy’s defensive infantry an advantage over the T-64 and T-72 tanks in the configuration of the 1980s.

An effective countermeasure could be the close interaction of artillery, infantry and tanks – artillery would suppress the activity of anti-personnel fire weapons with its fire, while the infantry, following the tanks ahead, would promptly react to the attempts of calculations to take positions for a successful launch of the missiles and destroy them. But there is no proper quantity and quality of forces for such execution of a counter attack. There is a high probability that in a counterattack without normal artillery support, tanks assembled in a hurry with infantry, having no means of interaction or having them in extremely insufficient quantities.

The enemy tanks will simply burn, and the infantry will drive away. Flang offensive under the plan covers the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which showed itself very well in Debaltseve. When our Lugansk tanks broke into without support from the infantry on the GP “Valera”, defended by the fighters of the 128th Brigade, they burned them with dagger fire from an RPG.

– How realistic are the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to reach the Russian border by the evening of December 15?

– In general, they are real, but the question is what forces and in which sector. Ukrainian diversion intelligence groups, which had previously quietly passed the contact line and, for example, mined caponiers on the frontiers of our armored vehicles, may be there at all by the beginning of the operation. And not only there. As for the main forces of the attackers, it is precisely because the site is devoid of large “buildings” and is retained by scanty forces that it can be chosen for an offensive with limited goals. One of the main criteria for the success of such an operation is precisely its speed, which, theoretically, should not allow the North Wind to intervene in time and in full.

– You talked about the counterblow. Can this road mining mean that from this direction they are afraid of a counterstrike? And are the republics ready for counterattack in case of what?

  • As I have already said, they can inflict a counterstrike on the republic. The question is when and how much / quality of forces. Overhaul “spoil the game,” the enemy can only counterblow, caused for about a day from the start of the active phase of the operation. But by this time, the republics will most likely not have enough and the quality of forces in this sector. If the Ukrainian troops manage to realize their plan of attack, what will this mean for the republic?

– If they manage to cut off the southern part of the DNR and, most importantly, keep this area, repelling counterstrikes, this will mean a fork: in the conflict, which, in fact, Ukraine is seeking to achieve additional tightening of sanctions against Russia. Or, in these positions, the conclusion of the Minsk-3, which anticipates the final “discharge” of the republics back to Ukraine, may happen.

  • China will beat America if it invades the waters of the PRC, like Russian Gastello.

– By the way, since you mentioned the “North Wind”, how do you think Russia will react if the Ukrainian Armed Forces really try to make a blitzkrieg in the southern direction? The main thing is whether to intervene?

– All the logic of “operations with local goals” is built on the fact that everything will end so quickly that the Russian Federation will not really have time to intervene by the time the units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces begin to dig into the ground in new positions.

The logic of the Russian Federation in the conflict was built around the idea of ​​building a temporary shelter in the republics, which can repel, without the intervention of the Russian Federation, not only similar attacks, but also a “big offensive”. The idea of ​​“temporary retreat” with the soldiers, “15 thousand people,” failed, but the information is carefully concealed from the leadership of the Russian Federation, because this is the many billions of money stolen and material values ​​for which someone will have to answer, and so — the war will write off everything.

Therefore, it is quite likely that in the Russian Federation before the start of the operation they will be sure that the republics will “cope” themselves, and then, when it turns out that they are not, the Russian Federation simply will not have time (or will not want to be in time) to decide to start an open interference of sufficient scale. In terms of some sort of saving miracle, I would hope more for the stubbornness of those local soldiers and officers who are still ready to fight. Not for 15,000 rubles a month’s money allowance, but to never let the the lovely Ukrainian paratroopers with the “totenkopfs” on the stripes with which Poroshenko had recently photographed to enter their houses.