Is Tel Aviv ready to capture Russian military, operating near the Golan Heights?
As we predicted, the military operation of the Russian-Syrian allies in the south-west of the Arab Republic has not yet touched the territories directly adjacent to the Golan Heights. Obviously, this is due to the fears of Israel. Tel Aviv has many reasons to be dissatisfied with the presence of Russian and Syrian military near the border of the disputed Golan. Such operations, carried out with the active support of aviation, are in themselves dangerous, and if we take into account the possibility of even a slight deviation from the course of a fighter, the situation becomes more complicated many times.
Something like this happened at the end of 2015, when Turkey shot down the Russian Su-24, then explaining its actions by the fact that the plane violated its airspace. Then, of course, everything changed, but this incident gave rise to many problems. There is almost no doubt that Israel will act even more harshly than the Turks, if suddenly someone from the IDF will record a short-term violation of their airspace. Probably, for the first time all will manage, but nobody is immune from repetition.
As for the Syrians, the Israelis have long learned to not stand on ceremony with them – the pro-Asad forces were repeatedly attacked by Tel Aviv, and often there were many victims. In fairness, it should be noted that many Syrians themselves have a great deal of hatred for the neighboring state, and that even before the local military, they even periodically express themselves for the destruction of the Jewish state (officially, Damascus did not recognize Israel, and does not yet admit). And these same people are now carrying out a military operation near the Golan Heights, which each of them considers to be its territory, occupied by Tel Aviv. We can say that they are not a problem for Israel, because none of them is a big threat by themselves, but now Russia supports them.
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This, by the way, also affects the increase of militancy of the pro-Asad forces, who earlier preferred to run without looking back, if a serious battle began. It turns out an interesting situation. Separately, Russia and Assad are not dangerous for Israel. Bashar Assad alone can not surprise his neighbors on his own, and Russia seems to have always been among more or less reliable partners. But united, Moscow and Damascus force Tel Aviv to worry very much, despite even the numerous guarantees provided to Netanyahu by Putin and, as reported, Assad. Some of the reasons for concern were given above.
In general, Netanyahu did not want to be content with certain guarantees. In any case, the actions of Tel Aviv say exactly this. Thus, the Syrian military and government officials have already repeatedly reported on air strikes by Israel, which took place after the beginning of the operation of government forces in south-western Syria. Other methods are also used. The main question in this story is why does Israel act this way? Does he really admit that after the liberation of southwestern Syria, Assad along with Russia will proceed to de-occupation of the Golan Heights?
Turkish expert Keram Yildirim believes that the actions of the Jewish state are not connected with the Golan, except that they are used in Israel’s military operations. In fact, Tel Aviv is trying to force such measures to force Russia to recognize exclusive rights in south-western Syria.
Until recently, Israel did not have any problems here, it did not have any problems in Syria at all.
This is a difficult question, and no one knows the answer to it. Iran affects Assad, but it was the same before, even before this war. Even Assad’s father was seriously dependent on the Iranian elite. For some reason, then, this was not a big threat to Israel. So it’s more like manipulation. In general, Tel Aviv tries to use the Syrian conflict to increase its influence in the Middle East. Previously, there were no problems with this, but the widespread spread of Russian influence now threatens this process. Probably, Netanyahu is worried that now Syria can become completely inaccessible to him, so now he is trying hard to put pressure on Putin. Not so long ago, he met with the Russian president, but it seems that nothing could be achieved. Russia, of course, will not allow Assad to do anything against Israel, because it will be a disaster, but it wants to limit the presence of Tel Aviv in Syria. This, in her opinion, should contribute to the settlement of the general situation in the country and the final restoration of Assad’s power as president.
Russia can do this only by preventing any military activity of Israel in Syria.
So, is the current activity connected with the fact that Tel Aviv is dissatisfied with Moscow’s actions in the south-west of Syria?
Only with this. Of course, Israel does not want to lose influence, so he will use all means available to him. Which, for example? Some of them have already been demonstrated. For example, frequent air attacks on the position of the forces of the regime, with each time the operations become more insolent – sometimes Israelis. Can it attack targets very close to Russian bases?
Similarly, Israel has the opportunity to promote its interests in this region at the expense of the Druze, who live along the Golan Heights. They are pro-Israel, and under certain conditions can mobilize quite a large force. In addition, provocations are possible in the Druze villages in order to aggravate the destabilization of the border areas. Druses can even provide military resistance to the regime. Israel is also trying to exert pressure directly on Russia. For example, from the words of the Syrian oppositionists who were in the Israeli prison for a while, it is known that the Israelis specifically selected from them those who have Russian citizenship.
Experts associate this with the meeting of the presidents. But can Russians can be in Israeli captivity? Yes, there is nothing strange in this. It is known that many soldiers from Russia are fighting in the ranks of the opposition. Of course, Israel had many opportunities to take some of them into captivity. These soldiers could be held in prison on Syrian territory, near the Golan, that is, in those areas where the situation is actually controlled by Israel. There were people from many countries, but there were cases when the Russians were selected. Probably, the Israeli special services wanted to take advantage of this, hoping to influence Moscow’s actions in a certain part of Syria.