Russia and Israel have concluded a deal on Syria. Is Putin ready to “surrender” Iran?
Russia and Israel definitely made a deal. Jews, as always, boast of victory and write: “Putin is ready to give up Iran, to please Israel and save Assad’s victory.” Is it really?…
Headlines about Russia’s actions in Syria continue to fascinate and cause a lot of controversy. This makes sense – the problem is extremely important on many levels, including pragmatic and moral.
So, what do we know about what is happening in Syria?
It is obvious that Russia and Israel have concluded a certain deal. There is a certain understanding recognized by both sides, but it is also clear that something more is happening, which is not fully explained. The Israelis, as always, boast of complete victory and publish articles like this: “In Syria, Putin and Netanyahu are on the same side”.
First, what were the original goals of Israel? Initially the Israelis had the following goals:
Destroy a strong secular Arab state, its political structure, armed forces and security services.
To create complete chaos and horror in Syria, justifying the creation by Israel of a “security zone” not only on the Golan Heights, but further to the north.
Start the civil war in Lebanon, setting the insane Takfiri on Hezbollah.
Let Takfiri and Hezbollah to bleed to death and then create a “security zone”, this time in Lebanon.
To prevent the creation of the Shiite axis Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon.
Shatter Syria on ethnic and religious grounds.
Create a Kurdistan, which can later be used against Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
Provide an opportunity for Israel to become an unquestionable influential person in the Middle East and force the KSA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and all the others to bow to Israel with any oil or gas pipeline project.
Gradually isolate, threaten, subjugate and eventually attack Iran by a broad regional coalition of forces.
Destroy all the centers of Shiite influence in the Middle East.
Now let’s stop and ask a very simple question: if Putin and Netanyahu are on the same side, what did Putin do to help the Israelis? I believe the obvious and unquestionable answer is – absolutely nothing.
The undeniable truth is that Putin destroyed the original Israeli plan for Syria.
In fact, Hezbollah and Iran have already intervened in Syria and have desperately “plugged holes” of the collapsing Syrian front. So, for that matter, it’s up to Putin to pay tribute to the fact that he forced the Israelis to abandon plan “A” and move on to plan “B”, which I described, and which can be formulated as follows:
“Step one: use a propaganda machine and agents of influence to once again unleash the myth of the Iranian military nuclear program. (…) If Trump says that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action represents a terrible threat, then it is. Hey, we live in an era of «post-gas» and «post-Dhuma» – if some English leaders say “very likely”, it requires everyone to immediately demonstrate “solidarity”, otherwise they will be accused of “anti-Semitism” or “double conspiracy theory” (you know examples). So, step one is to stir up rumors about the non-existent Iranian military nuclear program. The second step is to declare that there is a “threat to the existence” of Israel and (…) to allow stupid Americans to fight the Iranians. ”
As I explained in detail, Russia does not bear any moral obligation to protect anyone anywhere, including in the Middle East; and definitely not Syria and / or Iran.
Finally, the Israel is obviously luring Iran, striking at the Iranians (or, more accurately, related to the Iranians or their supported goals) in Syria. They hope that Iran’s patience will end, and that the Iranians will respond with enough massive artillery fire to justify not only the attack on (relatively low value) the Iranian-related targets in Syria but on Iran itself, which will lead to Iran’s guaranteed response to Israel and he will receive a “Grand Prix” – a massive US attack on Iran.
If Putin were “on the same side as Netanyahu,” he would help the Israel do what they do, that is, lure the Iranians, right? And what does Putin really do?
It all began with a statement by Foreign Minister Lavrov, who announced that all foreign forces must withdraw from Syria. I understand that there are no direct quotes of Lavrov’s initial statement, only their interpretation. Later, Lavrov also made some clarifying comments, like this.
Let’s begin by noting the following: even before Lavrov’s comment on “all foreign forces” the same Lavrov said that “all US divisions must be withdrawn from Syria after the defeat of the terrorist forces. ”
Remind that Israel illegally occupies the Syrian Golan Heights for many years, and that the Self-Defense Forces of Israel exactly correspond to the definition of “foreign forces in Syria”. The situation is improving, according to the Syrians. So when the Russians say that all foreign units, including the Iranians (assuming that Lavrov said so) should leave Syria, then they have no legal right or authority to make such a claim in the absence approval of the UN Security Council Resolution. Considering that Israelis and the United States do not put international laws or the UN Security Council in any way, we may even see the day when such a resolution will be adopted only against Iranians with disregard for the Israelis. The trick is that in reality there are very few Iranian “forces” in Syria, there are many more “advisors” (which are not “counted” by forces), and a mass of pro-Iranian forces that are not really “Iranian” in fact. There is Hezbollah, but Hezbollah will not go anywhere, and they are generally Lebanese, and not Iranians. There is no doubt that the Israel will say that Hezbollah is the Iranian forces, but in essence it is nonsense. According to numerous Russian sources, all this rhetoric concerns the southern part of Syria and the line of contact (and this is not the border, legally speaking) between Syria and Israel. Apparently the case is as follows: pro-Iranian forces and Hezbollah withdraw from the south and in exchange for this the Israel give the Syrians, supported by Russian air power and “advisors”, the opportunity to regain control over southern Syria, but without attempts to drive the Israel out of the Golan Heights, there is no reason for them to stay there.