General Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary Iran, Radzhab Safarov, told this on the forthcoming meeting of the foreign ministers in Vienna and the fate of the Iranian nuclear deal
Today’s meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Russia, Iran, China, France and the United Kingdom in Vienna can be decisive for the Iranian nuclear deal (JCAP).
Radzhab Safarov, the political scientist also spoke about why it is unprofitable for Europe to terminate the deal with Iran.
Rouhani called the proposals of the EU to preserve the nuclear deal disappointing
Which companies will primarily bring the production from Iran? It is known that the French Total has already announced the withdrawal from this market, which in 2015 won a tender for the development of the largest gas field in South Pars. Who will replace the French and will there be any compensation from Brussels?
The largest European companies have been waiting for the EU decision for almost two months. During this time, there were no clear proposals to protect the business in case of imposing sanctions on the part of the United States. Without an alternative, corporations prefer not to take risks, because their business is global and concentrated not only in Iran. Americans have real levers to exert pressure on these firms. Companies will think about minimizing risks and, most likely, if within a week or two there is no specific EU decision, they will freeze business in Iran or completely leave the local market. There will be only rare players who have already been subjected to sanctions or those who are not particularly affected by sanctions. If Total leaves, its place will be occupied by a Chinese company or another company.
Can the European countries establish some conditions for the extension of the SVAP?
The EU can offer anything, but it will only be an offer. Similarly, the US can offer Iran to withdraw its troops from Syria, but this is unrealistic. These two countries connect a huge tangle of important strategic interests – from regional security to the implementation of major geopolitical projects. Iran under no circumstances will leave from there completely. If Brussels after the States revises the nuclear deal, it will be yet another proof that Europe, with all its pomposity, does not have the sovereignty and the potential to protect its interests. I think, ultimately, under US pressure, this deal could collapse.
Moscow will take all measures to maintain an agreement with Tehran?
Now Europe does not have the capacity to address this issue. On the one hand, no one wants to get out of the agreement, since this is not in the interests of European economies. Brussels wants to build a less dependent on the US policy, but the countries of Europe are somehow dependent on the transatlantic partner – they do not have the strength to disobey or take a position different from the American one.
I think the EU will be squeezed out and, following the US, either offer an alternative option that, in essence, will be equal to the renunciation of a nuclear deal, or diplomatically set the conditions for Tehran under which the union will continue to be in the treaty.
If the European countries withdraw from the treaty, will China and Russia remain in it?
The countries that are members of the “Six” were delegated by the UN Security Council, they signed the treaty on behalf of the world community, and not on behalf of their governments. The withdrawal of these countries from the transaction does not mean that this is a decision of specific countries. Formally, there will be no point in keeping it at the European participants’ exit, since Russia, China and Iran already have good political relations. Moscow and Beijing support Tehran’s nuclear program without asking any unnecessary questions. They can establish bilateral relations or agree on individual positions, and this will be more effective than developing scenarios for the artificial maintenance of the treaty.
What should we expect from the upcoming meeting in Vienna?
Shah without mat?
Why the US plan for Iran is like an ultimatum?
Of course, this meeting will be very important. Here, new proposals for developing a common position will be tested. I think that the decision will not be breakthrough, but in general it will help clarify the interests of the parties, bring the states together to work out a common alternative agreement without the participation of the United States. Iran is waiting for the EU’s response, it needs a concrete and distinct position. In this issue, most likely, there will be progress, since the business can not wait so long. Therefore, the meeting in Vienna is very important. It is decisive in the development of the final decision, which will be considered as the final position of Europe.
An Iranian diplomat was detained on charges of preparing a terrorist attack in France. Will this scandal affect the relations between the EU and Iran?
This is a real provocation, which pursues purely political goals to exert pressure on the leadership in Tehran. However, one can not say that one provocation is enough for the EU to curtail its activities in the Iran. Most likely, Europe is looking for an excuse to get out of the deal beautifully – Brussels does not want the decision on the exit to look like it was taken under US pressure. The EU is setting up a society against Iran, preparing a platform to justify its infirmity.