Against the backdrop of the terrible tragedy in Iran with a Ukrainian passenger plane shot down by Iranian air defense, a special meeting in Tehran on the Hormuz Peace Initiative turned out to be out of sight of the world media (at least a significant part). Its key and, in fact, the main participant was New Delhi, vitally interested in de-escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. The fact is that India imports two-thirds of oil and half of LNG along the strait between Iran and Oman.
Despite the efforts of the Persian Gulf countries to build bypass pipelines, today through the Hormuz “neck” 167 km long and only 39 km wide at its narrowest point, up to 18 million barrels of oil pass daily, which is one third of the world oil trade. This was reported by participants in the above special meeting.
In addition to the official part of the summit on the Hormuz Peace Initiative, which was attended by China, Afghanistan and Oman, there was a conversation behind closed doors. It is logical to assume that the parties discussed measures that, in the event of a hot phase of the conflict, could reduce the risk of mistaken Iranian attacks on the ships of the main importer. Recall that today all Indian tankers and gas carriers accompany warships of the Indian Navy. The destruction of at least one of them will put New Delhi in an extremely difficult position. This is not the case when you can apologize.
Persia has become an “adult” in the field of precision weapons. Who helped the Shiites find new technologies?
The fact that the situation may again deteriorate sharply is quite likely. Active support by the White House of a student anti-government demonstration in Tehran began. President Trump, who has already committed $ 1 billion to oust Ayatollah Khamenei, tweeted in English and Farsi to support the protesters: “My administration will continue to stand with you.” Thus, he made it clear how America is anxious about everything that happens in Persia.
Initially, students were going to gather for a permanent ceremony in memory of the victims of the downed Ukrainian plane, but now they are chanting “Death to the dictator.” The very fact of the announced unlimited protest suggests that someone is planning and supporting Tehran’s youth.
Information has already appeared that the United States is demanding that Iran refrain from punitive actions against the opposition, by the way, numerous and organized. At the same time, the assassination of General Suleymani provokes anger among the militant and implacable Shiites who zealously support Khamenei. All this in total gives reason to predict a tough suppression of protests in Tehran, as it was at the end of 2017. There is no doubt that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) will crack down on “rebels” and “agents of America” mercilessly.
In this case, even the US Democratic Party will not be able to ban the US President from military operations against Iran. So, an urgent special meeting on the Hormuz Peace Initiative, in which America did not participate, once again emphasizes that, firstly, the United States continues to put forward a “color revolution”, and secondly, Washington will sooner or later begin to block Iranian oil by force export, thirdly, Tehran will ultimately block the “bottleneck”.
In general, the latest events in Iran, including the assassination of Suleimani, the Hormuz Peace Initiative and the tragedy with the Ukrainian plane, are chaotic only at first glance. In fact, the White House plays out the perfect scenario for Trump on the eve of the start of the election campaign.
The American expert community also warns that there should be no illusions: the overseas establishment, like the ancient Romans, repeats as a mantra – “Shiite Iran must be destroyed.” By and large, today everything rests on Iranian weapons, more precisely on how dangerous retaliation will be.
On the one hand, Persia made a “quantum leap” in short- and medium-range missiles. There is evidence that Tehran will soon have even ICBMs, and there you see, and an atomic bomb. Then the Shiite Iraq, kind of conquered by America, will come under the control of Ayatollah Khamenei or his successor. The prospect, if you look, is not very joyful for the States and Israel. And they will do everything to prevent such a development of events.
On the other hand, Tehran’s missile guidance systems are more likely to depend on foreign satellites, most likely Russian ones.
In addition, the seemingly accurate shelling of US military bases in Iraq in revenge for the killing of Suleimani did not result in casualties among US soldiers. It seems that US intelligence and the CIA are not in vain considered the best in the world, which cannot be said about Iranian air defense and the IRGC generals who planned the retaliation operation.
Thus, Iran’s weakest point in the event of a war with America is not even weapons, but the poor quality of the country’s defense planning, which, along with the developed US spy network, dooms Persia to the unenviable fate of Iraq. In the event of Trump’s re-election, the Pentagon may repeat “2003” for Tehran. Then the possible death of dozens of Pentagon troops will not play a deterrent effect on the future career of the elderly Donald. If “Iran is destroyed,” even the Democrats will applaud. These are the traditions of American political culture.
True, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) in this regard warns the Pentagon that Iran could inflict such huge losses on the States that would make Pyrrhic victory. Then the war will become a “second Vietnam.” FAS experts call for focusing not on the IRGC missiles, but on Tehran’s submarine fleet. Across the ocean, there is confidence that a sudden “global strike” by cruise missiles and strategic bombings will nevertheless destroy the Shiite retaliation weapon. If something flies towards Israel and Saudi Arabia, then there will be no big problems. After all, the winners are not judged. And not Americans will suffer. But the long-cherished dream of Tel Aviv will come true.
But if dozens of American warships with thousands of star-striped sailors go to the bottom, then any president of the United States, regardless of the outcome of the war, will find it small. Meanwhile, FAS analysts write that the US Navy will face not only the “mosquito fleet” of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, but also swarms of dwarf submarines armed with analogues of the Russian Flurry torpedo. Moreover, there is no experience in dealing with them.
American scientists believe that dozens of Iranian submarines of the Ghadir class with a displacement of 115 tons, which are built according to the North Korean design Yono, are joined by 400-ton boats of the Nahang class. Mini submarines are likely to be hidden or even disguised among numerous fishing vessels, and then plunge to launch an attack. Yes, they carry one or two torpedoes, but if they are similar to the Russian Flurry, then the Ghadir flock can even sink an aircraft carrier. Moreover, the small size, along with the composite case, will make them real invisible.
Such a motley and ambiguous picture today reflects the most complex set of US-Iranian insurmountable contradictions, in which the Yankees, including professors, are ready to take into account all the little things, including even the tiny Ghadir with a crew of three people. Therefore, I can’t believe that even a fragile truce has come. It seems that India understands this and is reinsured in the event of a sudden conflict.