The Jewish state decided to get ahead of Washington. What will lead the new provocations that are prepared in Tel Aviv.
Against the background of tensions between Iran and the United States, various experts began to speculate on what scenario the conflict between countries would develop. The very first version was proposed by Donald Trump himself – the United States, after the Persians hit their drone, strikes at Iran. According to the President of the United States, everything was ready for this, but in ten minutes the operation was curtailed. As if Trump decided to show mercy. The second option has been discussed for a long time – the United States in secret has long been preparing for a war against Iran, and now they are only looking for reasons to bomb and humiliate another country in the Middle East. In general, everything is ready, lacking only that very occasion. By the way, according to this version, Trump just canceled a one-time strike on Iran in order not to harm future plans to seize the Islamic Republic. But the third scenario is much more interesting, and it is discussed in the American and Israeli press.
The essence of the plan is that instead of the United States, Tel Aviv operates. This may seem strange, but given Mr. Netanyahu’s belligerent rhetoric and his great dislike for everything connected with Iran, this possibility is there. Especially in the last week, immediately after Iran threatened to withdraw from the nuclear deal, the Jewish prime minister began to talk a lot about the possible major consequences for Tehran and the whole world in general. At the same time, the IDF’s large-scale air force exercises were held to counter Iran. And if you look at the past experience of Israel in this matter, then this scenario becomes even more obvious.
US frankly provoke Tehran to drastic steps.
For example, in 1981, the Israeli Air Force attacked a nuclear reactor in Iraq, which Saddam Hussein bought from France. Then fourteen Israeli aircraft flew along the border of Saudi Arabia and penetrated unnoticed into Iraqi airspace. The reactor was seriously destroyed, it was declared unfit for use. By the way, there are rumors that Iran was then contributing to the success of this operation – it conveyed information about the route and even suggested one of the airfields. It was just then that he had a difficult relationship with Iraq.
In 2007, the same fate befell the Syrian nuclear program. Then three Israeli aircraft attacked the proposed reactor in the eastern province of Deir ez — Zor. In general, Israel knows how to destroy other people’s infrastructure. Why should it not now do what it can do well and not deliver a couple of pinpoint strikes on Iran?
Russian military expert Alexei Leonkov believes that technologically and militarily Israel at the moment, of course, is superior to Iran, but recognizes such a scenario as unlikely.
– This situation is reminiscent of the one that was in the days of the previous US President Barack Obama. At that time, Iran was very actively accused of violating various nuclear agreements. The Air Force of Israel was preparing to strike at the nuclear infrastructure facilities and at the same time at some military facilities that were supposed to cover. However, at a certain point, just at the time when Israel’s desire to launch an attack was at its peak, everything suddenly stopped. Stopped. Barack Obama did not support such a scenario, and as a result, there was a very nuclear deal between the US and Iran, which is now talked about so much. Now the situation is such that Iran is on the verge of withdrawing from this deal. It seems that the treaty is not completely broken, but Tehran is actively inclined to this by all US actions. Of course, this gives Iran a free hand in the development of its nuclear program. In the United States in this regard, a somewhat strange approach – all that they do is the so-called casus belli. They are all provocations, including tankers, looking for excuses for war. The Persians, on the other hand, are very restrained, and in principle there is often a question at all – What does Iran do to provoke a war? Nothing.
– How can this crisis develop? Will it still be hit?
- The Americans canceled the blow. Not for nothing. To begin with, Iran has a much more developed air defense system than it was in the days of the same Barack Obama. That is, the Israeli plan of those years is not applicable now.
That is, the Israeli plan of those years is not applicable now. At that time, Iran did not have C-300 complexes, and of the new complexes, there were only TORA at all. Production of own air defense systems was only at the stage of recovery. Now, in Iran, part of the regions is covered by a layered air defense system, that is, there are near, medium and long range complexes. But it is not across the border. In some places there are certain gaps, which with sufficient fire impact can be a serious problem for the defenders. By the way, it was precisely these gaps that the Americans hoped for when they talked about the three areas that were to be hit with cruise missiles. Of course, if the United States struck the blow, then Israel would have stood aside and simply rubbed their hands. But at the same time, Tel Aviv still wants to play a certain role in this.
– Can all the same Israel itself to strike this blow?
- In order to strike this blow, it is necessary for Israel to overcome the territory of Syria, somehow coordinate these actions with Jordan, then to fly over all Iraq and somehow hit from there by airplanes. To speak about the presence of ballistic missiles in Israel is not yet necessary. It has, of course, long-range air-launched missiles, but this again implies attracting aviation and overcoming a host of related problems. On this basis, the chances that Israel will strike is extremely small, close to zero. To strike they have to relocate somewhere, and this is very difficult. So the stake here is mainly on the United States, but given Iran’s readiness and equipment, it can be said that if the attack occurs, it will lead to the most unpleasant consequences, including for the Americans.