A significant part of the American elite, as recent events have shown, is opposed to the withdrawal of the US army from Syria. And in principle there is nothing interesting in it – the US are always fighting “for their country” somewhere far away from it, so everyone is already used to it. But the position of the current president brings confusion in the smooth course of American foreign policy. Donald Trump, before his election, repeatedly made ambiguous statements on ATS. Then he suddenly took the side of Vladimir Putin, who in the USA is considered almost his main problem. Then he began to talk about the big expenses of Washington for all these endless campaigns in the Middle East. And with such statements, being seemingly like an underdog (an impassable candidate), he still won the election. Thanks to the Americans, who, as it turned out, are not that stupid and can themselves figure out what they need.
Transactions between countries no longer exist, there is only a military solution.
True, this success for Trump is still the most significant, and maybe even completely unique. His policy did not meet with the approval of the local elites, and they have since been actively opposing it. This also applies to Syria.
How many occasions have the President of the United States come up with in order to withdraw his soldiers from the Arab Republic! All the problems of the region, he said, should be solved by countries, which is closer – Russia and Turkey. That urgently needed foreign sources of funding, because the States are not particularly necessary, and those who need, let them pay. Neither worked. And now, finally, he, apparently, from the whole charter, announces the withdrawal of American forces from Syria. Quite unexpectedly, given the futility of all past attempts and unpleasant consequences for the reputation in the event of another failure. But Trump still stands his ground, despite the outright refusal of Congress to support his initiative.
And the point seems to be set – without Congress, Trump cannot do anything. But the Wall Street Journal publishes interesting material in which it shares information received from high-ranking, but unfortunately, unnamed sources. The submission states that the withdrawal of almost all American soldiers from the ATS will end in April. Small remnants of the contingent are likely to leave the country already in May. True, one note is noted here – the troops will leave if the Trump administration succeeds in developing and implementing an effective plan to protect the Kurds.
Well, the information is interesting, however, how far have Trump’s people moved in this direction?
Australian expert Richard Frank believes that the withdrawal of troops before the end of spring is generally unrealistic.
– The problem is that at the moment there is no “Kurdish plan” at all, that is, such a plan that would be effective. Turkey is committed to an immediate invasion, and a long wait makes them (Turkish soldiers and the Turkish leadership.) Increasingly unrestrained. This is easily explained, because individuals in American politics tend to ensure that everything in the north of Syria remains as it is, and they don’t want to notice the crisis. Turkey is focused on Kurdish groups, and this is only a continuation of the crisis that has been going on for a long time.
Of course, one can refer to the fact that there is no Kurdish north, there are Democratic forces, but for Erdogan it means nothing. Moreover, representatives of the Kurdish forces themselves sometimes make strange statements. The situation is complicated. For example, rumors that the Kurds are negotiating with the regime. How does this happen? And what do they want to achieve in this way? However, this does not have to be true. And how to solve in two months a problem that has long become historical? Just to reconcile the armed Kurds with the armed Turks will not work. So far, containment has been effective. The US restrained the parties from excessive activity, and this was good. There are no more forces capable of that.
The French military, of course, have influence in Syria, but they will not be able to influence Erdogan or the Kurds, so they are likely to leave after the United States if this happens. Therefore, it is hard to believe that the US military will be withdrawn from Syria in April or May. Furthermore, the security of the Kurds is not the only problem. The problem of Iranian expansion still remains. In order to contain it, we will still Al-Tanf base and need strength in the south of Deir ez-Zor.