Fury of Janissaries: US ready to fight Turkey, but prefer peace

What can Ankara oppose in the event of a military conflict with Washington?

Yes, You heard it right.

What is going on in the head of the American President Donald Trump can not imagine even his inner circle. So recently, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in an interview with CNBC that Trump is “ready for military action against Turkey if necessary.” It is argued that Washington would “prefer peace to war.” In general, the right hand does not know what the left is doing.

 

But let’s pay tribute – during his presidency, Trump did not start a single new war with the participation of the United States, even managed to balance relations with North Korea and did not “get into a barrel” in the trade war with China. Although he does not spare the swear words and threats. Now Turkey has come under his rage – at first for the purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems, now for the invasion to the Syrian Kurdistan, which until recently was under the control of the American military contingent.

 

– If you need dynamics or military action, you should know that President Trump is fully prepared to take such action, – Pompeo warned. The Secretary of State declined to clarify which actions by Turkey could force the United States to use force. And, of course, he did not begin to disclose the course of the military operation and the possible use of weapons. Trump himself so far only threatened Turkey with “tough sanctions,” which did not seem to scare President Recep Erdogan, who flew to Putin to negotiate in Sochi.

 

Will Trump really decide on the use of military force in Turkey, what it can be and how ready the Turkish army is for American aggression?

 

  • An extremely unlikely scenario, – said political analyst Alexander Zimovsky.

– Everything can be attributed to the emotionality of Donald Trump, who, by the way, has already cooled down over his disagreements with Erdogan and even supports him in some way regarding the operation “Source of Peace” in Syria. And certainly she will never give an order for a military attack on Turkey.

 

Firstly, Ankara is a US ally in NATO, which means it must secure the support of all the countries of the alliance. And although France and Great Britain favor the exclusion of Turkey from NATO, Washington itself will not agree to this, including because Ankara is its main partner in the Middle East region.

 

Secondly, in Turkey there are several US military bases, the largest of which, the Incirlik airbase, stores nuclear munitions, which in the event of a conflict will be impossible to take out. Thirdly, in the event of the outbreak of hostilities, Turkey will simply close the Bosphorus Strait for American ships and deprive them of access to the Black Sea. Again, it should be borne in mind that the reaction of Russia and China will be extremely negative, which will come out with support, possibly even military, regarding Turkey. The factor of power of the Turkish army, which is unlikely to play the role of a “whipping boy,” cannot be discounted.

 

The current reason for US anger was precisely the announcement of the beginning of the operation “Source of Peace” in northern Syria against the Kurdish armed forces, which Turkish President Erdogan made on October 9. And on October 13, Mark Esper announced that the United States would withdraw about one thousand troops from Syria so that they would not be between the two attacking parties. On October 17, during the negotiations between Erdogan, Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo, Turkey pledged to stop the operation for 120 hours so that Kurdish troops would leave the 30-kilometer “safe zone”.

 

However, the very next day, hostilities resumed.

 

President Trump threatened Turkey with duties and sanctions in case of “unacceptable behavior”, signed a decree on their application. But it was only about persons who impede the ceasefire in Northern Syria, and also interfere with the political settlement in this Arab country. Now the United States, if necessary, is ready to use military force against Turkey in connection with its military operation. It is not clear at the same time which steps of Ankara can become a sufficient basis for such a Pentagon reaction.

 

Turkey may be expelled from NATO for the “Kurdish issue”, but it is ready to cooperate with Russia.

  • If the United States decides to conduct a military operation in Turkey, which, of course, is unlikely, it will be, first of all, cruise missile attacks on strategic facilities and locations of military bases, – the military believes – said military observer Vladislav Shurygin.

– This is a favorite American tactic for aggression in other states. They will not conduct a ground operation, they use, as usual, the opposition forces in the country, in this case they are the Kurds, who can supply additional weapons and ammunition.

 

But here it is necessary to take into account the defense factor of the Turkish army, which is armed with American-made Patriot air defense systems, which were delivered by a number of European countries, and now Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, which will soon take up combat duty. So in Turkey, American types of armaments may come down, which in itself is quite funny.

 

Turkey’s army is also quite serious – its ground forces are considered the second strongest in the NATO bloc, after the US, and the number of military personnel, not counting reservists, is more than 600 thousand people. Military aviation is represented by about 250 multi-purpose F-16 fighters of various modifications and a whole range of combat aircraft, there are even two F-35s, the supply of which the United States froze. Turkey has about 2,500 tanks and other armored vehicles. The naval forces of the country, which are based in the Black and Mediterranean Seas, also have good opportunities.

 

Yes, a number of weapons of the Turkish army can be considered obsolete, but Ankara is actively re-equipping its military with modern and effective weapons. To win over Turkey is a difficult matter even for such a powerful army as the American.