The reason for recalling Idlib is that on February 14 the leaders of Russia, Iran and Turkey will gather in Russian Sochi to discuss the fate of Syria after the decision of the United States to withdraw its military contingent from Syria.
In fact, there are enemy regiments in Idlib, not a regiment. For there are many of them, unfortunately. Some have the small arms (it’s not too bad) and some came with heavy weapons. How many exactly, no one knows, they talk about several tens of thousands of militants. But the fact that they are evil and unfriendly to Syria, to Russia and Iran is a fact. (How many civilians are there in Idlib? As of 2011, there were 1,501,000 people there. There are no data on how many civilians there are now.)
At one time, in a hurry to resolve local armed confrontations, Idlib was raced by buses and dumped on the principle of “God, everything I don t need is Yours” of the most inveterate jihadi fighters, along with weapons, wives, children and feather beds. Therefore, there gathered the strongest nuts from Aleppo, Raqqa and similar strongholds. The most that neither is, figuratively speaking, cannibals and thugs.
The armed forces of the Dzhebhat an-Nusra organization predominate in Idlib (it constantly changes its name, today it is the “Hayat Tahrir-ash-Sham” banned in Russia) in alliance with the smaller formations Hurras ad-Din and the Turkestan Islamic Party”. Smaller competitors en-nusra militants already either destroyed or attached to them.
Turkey has a somewhat special relationship with the forgotten regiments of Idlib, since in the north the province of Idlib borders with Turkish territory, in particular, with the Turkish province of Hatay, from where Idlib receives weapons and human reserves.
This Turkey protects the jihadists Idlib from the onset of Syria, Iran and the Russian Aerospace Forces.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry formulated its policy in Idlib in the following way: “The presence of terrorists in Idlib is not a reason for stripping.” I noted this extremely interesting philosophy of the Turks, and you should note.
Recall when the doors were closed in Idlib and the Syrian government army, together with the Russian military space forces, began to prepare for an offensive. It was September 2018.
There are (again Sochi) agreements on Idlib dated September 17, 2018. Namely, the agreement on the creation of a demilitarized zone along the line of contact between the rebels and the army of Bashar al-Assad.
Russia, the Iranian formations and the Syrian troops began to move forward to Idlib, when suddenly … Then they reared, remember at the same time the cunning Georgian Turk Erdogan and Trump. They defended the idlib jihazhdist against destruction.
So they live in one of the provinces of Syria, taking advantage of the contradictions between Iran, Turkey, Russia and, of course, Syria. (It’s as if, after the victory over Hitler, for example, the Nazi state was left somewhere in Holland or in one of the lands of Germany).
It should also be noted an important circumstance. The very north of Idlib is inhabited by Kurds who successfully fought against ISIS *** on the side of the American coalition. Actually, the Kurds were the main combat component of the American coalition against the IS. Now the Americans are leaving, leaving the Kurds, as they say, to their fate.
The Kurds have already asked for protection from Syria against the Turkish invasion, and the Assad army sent symbolic patrols to Manbidj. Russian military policemen were also located nearby. These acts of Syria and Russia, I am sure, terribly anger the Turks.
Turkey wants to prevent further development of the Kurdish resistance of Turkey and with the help of the “Syrian Free Army” (supposedly moderate opposition) is preparing Turkey to reject this territory from Syria.
Al-Nusra, meanwhile, is said to have almost destroyed the “Syrian Free Army”, so Turkey is now forced to deal with terry immoderate opposition.
In short, the devil’s leg breaks what’s going on.
Iran, a radical ally of Syria, wants to play the role of the dominant ally of Syria ready to support the Syrian security forces and launch a counter-attack on Idlib.
It is not worth remembering that Turkey and Iran are regional enemy powers. Only from the XVI to the XVIII century, Turkey and Iran fought a bloody battle between themselves NINE wars. And remember that Iran is inhabited by Shiite Muslims, and Turkey is Sunni Muslim. (And together they will not converge, their confrontation will be more terrible than the confrontation between West and East).
It is unlikely that the Assad forces and Iran will launch an attack on Idlib without the support of Russia.
And Russia cannot support them, because in this case it will irreparably ruin its relations with Turkey.
There is one more player, and an important one in the conflict. This is Israel. Israel is determined not to allow the Iranians to create military bases in Syria.
Russia, having as a percentage the same number of Russians in Israel as they live in Ukraine, always had feelings for Israel as for the 16th republic during Soviet times. And because Russia would like to satisfy both ours and yours.
And you, I believe, have noticed that Russia is doing less and less. I personally deeply believe that it is time to change the mentality “to please both ours and yours” to a more modern mentality of “national interests”.
Here they will meet in Sochi at Putin’s residence in Bocharov Ruchey or in some administrative building in Sochi, palm trees will rustle, and those gathered will be distressed and angry at each other
Will they somehow manage to at least pretend that they agree and make a clear decision on Idlib? I doubt.
Meanwhile, the first American servicemen will leave Syria already in March, and in April the withdrawal of troops will be completed. There are only a few troops somewhere around two thousand, but the American contingent had great symbolic meanings.