Dangerous relations between allies

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif plans to visit Moscow on Monday, May 14, where he is going to meet with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. This will be the second meeting after the start of Israeli air strikes. This is one of Iran’s steps to maintain relations with its Russian ally, despite its neutral position.

Iran will take certain steps because of international pressure on Tehran, especially after the US withdraws from the nuclear agreement and the emerged Russian-Israeli understanding of military strikes.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that his country does not want “new tension” in the region and that “Iran has always worked to reduce tensions in the region.” And Deputy Chairman of the National Security Council of Iran, Abu Fadl Hasan Fagi, denied Iranian missile strikes on the positions of the Israeli army in the occupied Golan.

Expert Adnan Abu Amer believes that after Trump’s decision, Iran needs international and European support. And if in the coming days the blows are repeated, the Iranians will be forced to use their militia in the south, such as Hezbollah, to attack without striking.

During the long-standing Syrian conflict, the relations between Russia and Iran can be described as a “situational alliance” that served for a certain period of time to achieve common goals. However, in 2018, he had another military and political goal, which prompted Moscow to travel to Tel Aviv to begin work on previous agreements on the establishment of the latter’s influence in the south in order to curb Iran.

Tel Aviv continues to threaten the Syrian regime and its ally Iran with missile strikes. Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman sent new warning messages urging Syrian President Bashar Assad to drive out commander of Al-Quds forces in Syria’s Revolutionary Guard Kasem Suleymani from Syria.

The Israeli radio quoted Lieberman as saying during the visit to the occupied Golan: “We urge Syrian President Bashar Assad to drive out the Iranian forces, in particular the forces of Al-Quds and its leader, Kassem Suleymani from Syria.” He added that “the presence of these forces does not help Assad’s regime, but creates only problems and brings harm.”

Pressure inside Iran also exists.

Why is Iran currently aiming at Israeli positions? What prompted him to choose such goals in contrast to the latter? This is due to the attack on the airport “T-4” in the province of Homs? These questions are asked by the media after a recent attack.

According to the Palestinian expert, Iranian missiles were an Iranian solution. He linked this issue with an attempt to “warmly” respond to previous attacks, citing pressure within the country that arose between the “Revolutionary Guard” and the government.

The first want to attack, to restore the image of Iran, which was recently spoiled. The Iranians used the model of the behavior of the Syrian regime – “to retain the right of reply.”

On the other hand, Iran considers any strikes in the region as an armed confrontation. Teheran fears that if the US joins Israel, the situation will change completely in its favor.

In the past two years, America has stated that its presence in Syria after the liquidation of ISIS (banned in the Russian Federation – ed.) Is based on restraining Iranian influence. The US sees the future of Syria without Assad, which in January was confirmed by the former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

The growing role of the US in Syria is currently a threat to the Iranian project, since the beginning of January, the US welcomes the leaders of the Free Army and is discussing the possibility of renewed military support for the fight against terrorism and the Iranian militias.

The Israelis believe that the current stage should not be repeated in Syria. According to the analyst, Israel does not want to stay away from what is happening in Syria and the agreements that will be implemented the day after the end of the war and the preservation of the Assad regime.

US support and the unwillingness of the Russian side to intervene give Israel a large field of action in order to play a role in Syria. In the coming days, he can continue air strikes in response to the “hidden” actions of Iran, which he is carrying out through his militia in the south of Syria.

According to Israeli estimates, in the south there will probably be military clashes, and it is clear that the Israeli army will take up. The expert explained that, despite the above, no one knows what is happening between Israel and Iran, especially in the light of the current US administration, whose steps can not be predicted.