Hopes that Turkey is about to make a strong friendship with the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are part of this international organization today), and there, you see, will break off allied relations with the US, were exaggerated. On August 5 it became known: on the eve of the “five” summit in Johannesburg in late July, Ankara actually verbally expressed the desire to participate in the forum as a representative of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. And received a firm rejection because of “the organization is not ready for new participants.” This was reported by the Turkish anti-government newspaper Sözcü.
This logically follows the statement made earlier by the executive director of the National Committee for the Study of the BRICS Georgy Toloraya. According to him, the desire of the Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan to make Turkey a full member of the BRICS, expressed at the summit of this association, is currently unworkable.
“The President of Turkey can voice the desire of his country to become a member of the BRICS, knowing full well that this is impracticable. In any case, at the moment within the BRICS it has been decided not to consider the question of expanding the membership in this association until such a mechanism of interaction within the association is regulated, which will allow negotiating and finding a compromise, “Toloraya said.
He added that, in addition, Turkey’s membership in NATO is a complicating factor for BRICS cooperation.
Let’s note, the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin during the summit in Johannesburg said that expansion of BRICS at the expense of new participants is not planned. And yet he did not completely rule out such an opportunity. “Now formally increase the number of BRICS members until we plan, because of those formats that have developed show their effectiveness.” It’s just that this question, as we are told in the people, does not dare with kondachka. “We need to work it out properly,” Putin said.
In fact, Erdogan’s statements fit into a multi-vector policy, which he has been pursuing for quite some time. It is already obvious: the Turkish president is not going to leave. Ankara’s ties with the EU. But at the same time he wants to benefit from joint projects with the Russian Federation, China or India.
According to some experts, Ankara cooperates with those with whom it is profitable at the moment or in the short term. And now the words of the Turkish leader about the desirability of his country in the BRICS have a tied to the current political moment. More specifically, they are caused by the conflict between Turkey and the United States.
It is not accidental that it was in the connection with the new attack of Donald Trump, who threatened to introduce “significant sanctions” against Ankara, was given by Erdogan in Johannesburg.
Responding to the entry of the head of the White House on Twitter, the Turkish leader noted that “Washington is losing” such a strong and sincere partner as Turkey. ” Plus, he made it clear that he was not ready to make concessions on any of the issues.
Erdogan announced his intention to sue the International Arbitration Court if Ankara does not receive from the United States the fighter-promised by Washington F-35. And he rejected demands to release the detained American pastor Andrew Brunson, accused of aiding and abetting an attempted coup in 2016.
Against the backdrop of cooling relations with the US, the BRICS summit allowed Ankara to demonstrate that it is betting on alternative centers of power. One should think that Erdogan will play the same card in September, during the planned state visit to Germany. As the German Bild writes with reference to sources in the governments of the two countries, the Turkish leader will try to revive the dialogue with the leading Western European partners of the United States.
How far is Erdogan ready to go in quarrel with the US, what place does Ankara give to Moscow in this game?
– Turkey should be treated calmly to the maneuvers. And in non-public talks with Erdogan, explain the essence of the BRICS organization, “said Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, Academician of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, former head of the Main Department for International Military Cooperation of the Russian Defense Ministry. – We must understand that today there is a world of civilizations on the one hand, and the world of anti-civilizations on the other. The world of anti-civilizations is the West. Financial capital dominates there. And everything that happens in the West in politics and the economy is aimed against other civilizations.
From this point of view, BRICS is formed as a coalition. And later – an alliance of anti-Western civilizations. In the union there are full-fledged civilizations – China and India. There is Russia as the basis of the Eurasian civilization, South Africa – as the future African civilization,
Brazil – the foundation of the future Latin American civilization. And today the question is acute: why is the Islamic civilization not represented in the group of BRICS countries?
There are two candidates for this place: the leader of the Sunni peace Turkey and the leader of the Shiite world – Iran. But in order for Turkey to join the coalition of anti-Western civilizations, it needs to withdraw from the Western world.
Erdogan – and Turkey in general – are in many respects opponents of Europe and the United States. But until the end of Ankara has not yet decided. She is a member of the Western community, a member of the aggressive military bloc of NATO. And Erdogan’s throwing-to remain in NATO or to join the BRICS group-is still a search for his own way.
I believe that in the future Turkey will leave the West without disrupting ties with it. It will remain a trading and economic partner of the West. Perhaps, somewhere even a partner in the field of security. But she will have to leave NATO if she really wants to find her place in another civilizational structure.
Therefore, I repeat: Ankara’s actions are to be treated calmly. And Erdogan and the Turkish elite explain: you have a perspective. But you need to choose. If you are not with the West – and the West does not let you into your civilizational structure, into the European Union – you need to leave the North Atlantic Alliance. Because in the BRICS, a collective security system is being formed in parallel. Political security issues are already being agreed upon. And in time there will be a system of principles of collective security.
So let the Turks think. Categorically deny them membership in the BRICS is not worth it. And I believe that in the next few years both Iran and Egypt will be interested in joining the BRICS. In addition, it is important for us that Turkey, when joining the group, acted not as an independent player, but as a representative of the entire Sunni world.
– It turns out, the principal issue – the presence of Turkey in NATO. Meanwhile, Washington is interested in Ankara as a partner for security in the Middle East. Will Americans allow the loss of such an ally?
– Turkey is gradually aware that during all the years of NATO membership, it played the role of a strike force against the USSR on the southern flank of the alliance, and then against the CIS. And this provocative and aggressive role did not bring anything to the Turks.
The Turkish elites are beginning to get a feeling that the US has used them in their own interests. In particular, for the destruction of the Soviet Union. And, further – in Europe – partners of the Turks are not allowed. And again they are assigned a subordinate role. On the one hand – the absorber of migratory flows from Asia and Africa. On the other – a ram against Russia. In particular, today Ankara heavily presses on the Crimea, supporting the Crimean-Tatar leaders opposing Moscow.
When this anti-Western sensation in Ankara is finally formed, a gradual withdrawal of Turkey from NATO will begin. This is a soft option. But I do not exclude a sharp one. For example, that at some point Ankara will radically say that from tomorrow it is not a member of the bloc. True, Turkey needs security guarantees, first of all, from the United States.
And here it is necessary to look, what guarantees can Russia, China, the same Iran give? And then the process of Turkey’s joining the group of BRICS countries may be different: at one point it is stated that Turkey is no longer a member of NATO, and becomes a candidate for BRICS.
– In this case, deep differences between Moscow and Ankara will be overcome?
– The historical contradictions between our countries will remain in any case. In particular, in the Crimea. After all, there was a time when the peninsula was ruled jointly by Russia and the Ottoman Empire.
The Pan-Turkism, where the space of “Turan” to the north of Iran, and from the Caucasus to the Sayans, was considered Turks as the birthplace of “Turanian” nationalities will not disappear anywhere. And all the ethnic groups of the Ural-Altaic language family were included.
But even with the accession of Turkey to the BRICS, and in the Moscow-Ankara-Tehran triangle, and in bilateral Russian-Turkish relations, it is possible not only to put tomatoes on the priority of cooperation. But also to solve the problems that hamper our cultural and civilizational rapprochement.