World media reported sensational news – Donald Trump gave the order to withdraw American troops from Syria. First, in his well-known manner, the President of the United States again declared his victory over the Islamic state, and then clarified that the Department of Defense was engaged in full with the task of withdrawing troops. It would be possible to treat this as a regular joke, because Donald Trump is famous for giving numerous promises, which are often not fulfilled, or later everything does not turn out exactly the way he was telling. Or, from his subordinates, we learn that the leader of the United States meant completely different things. But suddenly his statement was supported by the words of the White House press secretary Sarah Sanders. She said that the withdrawal of troops has already begun and this marks the new stage of the American campaign in Syria. Well, here the intentions of the United States seem more serious.
Although, which only did not exist before. How many times has Donald Trump led to the fact that the Americans are about to leave the Arab Republic, but never did. Moreover, it is completely incomprehensible how in the future Washington intends to support its protégés.
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This is primarily about the Kurds, who without the help of the United States will be in the worst situation. First, the Kurds, despite their relative friendliness towards Damascus, are still separatists and, therefore, enemies of the Syrian authorities. This means that there are still a lot of unresolved issues between the Syrian Arab army and the people’s self-defense detachments. It is unlikely that Damascus, even under strong pressure, will miss the opportunity to return all the territories now held by the Kurds. Yes, and do it better in the shortest possible time, because Rozhava has long been proclaimed, and the longer this unrecognized state exists in the SAR, the more opportunities it will have to strengthen and receive additional powerful support from outside. Secondly, the detachments of the people’s self-defense and their political leaders are on the verge of war with Turkey.
Ankara has already conducted two successful operations against them, and not so long ago announced the upcoming launch of the third. The only thing that stopped the Janissaries was the presence of Americans on the east bank of the Euphrates, that is, where the Kurdish lands are located. Now their hands will be completely untied.
In general, it is obvious that if the US leaves, then anything can start in Syria. Of course, Washington is well aware of its importance, perhaps that is why such statements are allowed here – the States are checking how the world will react to their decision.
Our source in the military leadership of the Russian Federation reports that over the past year representatives of the United States repeatedly raised this issue in the course of communication with Russian colleagues. But in recent days, not that there were no such statements, diplomatic activity was not observed at all. Although it is obvious to everyone that before leaving Syria, the States will have to conduct numerous negotiations with many parties, including the Russian Federation.
At the same time, the Americans put forward some demands on Damascus and Russia to advance this project. There were requests for the provision of various information about the citizens of Syria and Russia, for example, but here, so far even no proposals have been received.
So, what about the fact that Trump has already given the order, and it is being executed – there are no guarantees. But, of course, Russian specialists did not ignore this. The plan for the case of US withdrawal has long been developed.
It is obvious that the departure of Americans can lead to a sharp increase in instability in the north and east of the SAR. In this regard, the role of the main guarantors of the relative peace will pass to the Turks, and the burden of additional concerns will fall on the Russian Federation. It is Russia that will have to get involved in the Kurdish-Turkish conflict and try to prevent its transition into the hot phase. Otherwise, there are risks of a big war on the east coast. In addition, this Turkish campaign in the future will fuel the civilian, for, rather, Ankara will give up the territories of the armed opposition, conquered from the Kurds, namely, the Syrian free army and its allies in the so-called “Liberation Front”.
Realizing the difficulties that may arise for all in connection with the withdrawal of American troops, Washington may be trying to manipulate the parties to the conflict. He demonstrates to them that his role is key. But in fact, Russia now has the potential to stabilize ATS in a short time. Nevertheless, our source acknowledges that even for Moscow, the sharp departure of the Americans would be a surprise, and not the most pleasant one, because in the near future, with such an alignment it is hard to avoid problems.