It has long been announced the withdrawal of the US military from the United States, but it never came to that. The main reason why this happens is the Turkish-Kurdish conflict.
The problem is that most of northern Syria is occupied by Kurdish people’s self-defense detachments. Ankara considers them a branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and calls terrorists. And during the years of the Syrian civil war, Erdogan even managed to conduct two full-fledged military operations against the YPG (the abbreviation of the people’s self-defense detachments from Kurmanji). There were plans to begin the third operation, but thanks to the Americans it never came to that.
In fact, their presence in Syria provides the Kurds with cover. Not even millet cover, but a complete and almost the only protection. And when Donald Trump and his administration finally announced the start of the withdrawal of troops, everyone had a big question – what will happen to the Kurds now? Is the United States so easy to give them at the mercy of the Turks? It is important to note here that in this case the Kurds are meant Detachments of people’s self-defense, because in Ankara it was repeatedly stated that there are no complaints about all other Kurds who are not in terrorist groups. This is, of course, a controversial issue, but it seems that all the US-Turkish agreements on Syria do relate exclusively to the YPG.
And it seemed that in the short term, the States, even for this reason, would not be able to get out of the SAR. However, the other day the story received an unexpected development. The special representative of the US Secretary of State for Syria, James Jeffrey, gave a number of explanations on the direction in which the negotiations with Turkey are now moving. It turns out that the main discussed option for solving the Kurdish problem is the forced relocation of people’s self-defense detachments away from the Turkish border. He briefly told “about the safe zone along the Turkish border, where there would be no YPG, because Turkey is very nervous because of the YPG”, and this is quite enough to understand that the United States, in fact, betrayed the people’s self-defense units.
The fact is that the American Coalition was so effective in Syria for the most part thanks to the Kurds, who still form the backbone of the so-called Union of Democratic Forces (the pro-American anti-government coalition of the Syrian armed opposition is auth). It was the YPG that did all the dirty work, while the Yankees and all the others preferred to look at the torn Syria from the air, from their ultramodern and almost invulnerable to local air defense planes. It was they who liberated Raqqa and almost the entire north of the SAR with the east to boot. And now, by their decision, the United States, in effect, excludes them from the struggle for political influence in most of the territories they conquered.
Obviously, the withdrawal of the YPG will have a negative impact on the Democratic Union (the Kurdish party controlling the Popular Self-Defense Forces). The only solution for him is likely to be negotiations with Damascus on far from the most favorable conditions for him. And in general, this can result in a complete collapse of the Kurdish movement in the SAR, which, in principle, is not so bad – Assad, supported by Moscow, in such circumstances almost guarantees to itself the return of the territories occupied by the separatists.
Russian orientalist and political scientist Oleg Gushchin believes that this decision is somehow connected with the desire of Donald Trump to reduce the American presence in Syria.
- The fact is that the new US president is mostly isolationist. He wants to cut America’s spending on all kinds of incomprehensible international projects. You can spend another billion on a military campaign in some third world country, or you can build a new car factory, for example, in Oklahoma. Trump chooses the latter, but opposes him, which is why many paradoxes arise – for example, the same story with the withdrawal of American troops. But in order to leave people in Syria, Trump’s opponents still need a reason. The Kurds are right now. But if supporters of the president and he himself can find the right solution, then all this will end. Probably, the situation with the movement of the Kurds is the very solution. Of course, it’s far from a fact that they can be pushed aside, but in principle the Kurds themselves have nowhere to go. Of course, they can be outraged, only in the end they will have to agree.
They will say: “Well, okay, only it will cost Uncle Sam extra $ 500.” Both the Turks are calm, and the Kurds are fine. But this is the ideal. In fact, to solve this situation, Washington will have to involve Russia, and we will already need to involve Assad. The Kurds will demand autonomy from Assad, but he does not want this, and has the right to do so. But given that the Americans are gradually reducing their support, the Kurds may agree to less favorable conditions. In addition, autonomy may be different. It may be the same as in Iraq, where the Kurds have real autonomy, or it may be such that all power remains in the hands of the central authorities. So it is likely that there will be progress soon, but the opposite is also likely.