Everything that is happening now in Syria, looks like a major regional deal, under huge influence of Russia. And if this is the case, it also explains the nervous denials from Israel and Iran, followed by further confirmation. And to confuse even more, we now have Stoltenberg stating that NATO will not help Israel in the event of an Iranian attack, and which – given that the NATO Secretary General does not have any power and that NATO 80% or more is the United States, and that the United States now has permanent “covering forces” in Israel, and it can always say that they were attacked – complete nonsense. But still it’s amazing to note how all this “adds chaos”.
And there is a clear Syrian plan to throw Americans out of northern Syria, which, quite predictably, is not loved by Uncle Sam. So, the two sides are again negotiating.
If all this for you looks like a testimony to the hypothesis that “Putin and Netanyahu are on the same side,” we ll try to prove the opposite. It looks like one of the following:
- A major regional transaction has been concluded, or
- There is a process of breaking through a major regional transaction, or
- A major regional deal is concluded, but no one believes anyone, and everyone wants to improve it in their favor.
And, of course, everyone wants to save the face, either denying everything at all, or announcing the victory, especially the US and Israel.
So, let’s ask the main question: is there any evidence at all that Putin and / or Assad “merge Iran”?
Away from the scope of declarations and statements, let’s return to the real world
Let’s start with a simple question: what does Iran want most?
Priority number one for Iran is the possibility of avoiding a massive American strike against Iran.
Accordingly, it is the Israelis’ first priority to arrange such an attack on Iran. In this they are quite frank. Their most recent idea was to create a “military coalition against Iran,” while trying to trap NATO, joining the anti-Russian exercises in Europe.
And not because the non-existent Iranian nuclear program threatens Israel, but because Iran offers the most successful and therefore dangerously competitive, alternative civilizational model for the Saudi-Wahhabi version of Islam. Furthermore. Iran dares to openly commit “the main crime from all crimes,” that is, publicly call Israel a racist state. And, finally, Iran (alas, again unlike Russia) is a truly sovereign state that successfully copes with the “fifth column” and is outside the IMF / WTO / MB iron claws and so on.
Helping the repressed Shiites in the region is probably more important for Iranian leaders than helping all the other repressed. In a religious sense, this means that Iran will try to protect and help the Shiites in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. In fact, given Hezbollah’s amazing mercy towards the Southern Lebanon Army (SLA) in southern Lebanon in 2000, and the fact that the Syrian security forces are now acting with extreme caution in those parts of Syria that have concluded an agreement with Russia (this even disturbs some Russian analysts), I think that the Iranian-backed forces that liberate Syria from Daesh are the best things to hope for.
Moreover, the truth is that, for all its mistakes, the Ba’athite regime in Syria was tolerant of minorities, and that Hezbollah always defended the entire Lebanese people, regardless of their confessional affiliation or ethnicity.
So, who poses the greatest threat to the Shiites and, I would say, all the people of the Middle East? Takfiri from Daish, of course.
And what do all the variants of a possible “major regional deal” have in common? Destruction of Daesh (ISIS) in Syria.
Since this is contrary to Iranian interests?
Continue to move the current course, and I do not see any indication that they somehow revise it, the only question is where and when it will lead to a full-scale war. It remains only to guess.
The fact is that unlike Iran, Israel has little to offer to Putin or Russia. This does not mean that Israel has no influence on the Kremlin, it definitely is, but this influence is the “stick”, not the “gingerbread”. But the Israeli “whip”, although it can not be denied that it is large, shallow compared to the Iranian “carrot”: not only huge resources and billions of dollars / rubles / rials / euros that can be made on energy and weapons, but also in many sectors of the economy.
There is also the fact that Iran is truly the number one power in the entire Middle East: perhaps not so much as to impose its will on others, but certainly big enough to bring down any plan or policy that it does not approve. Moreover, now that international sanctions against Iran have been officially introduced (the US refusal to sign does not matter), Iran can join the SCO and become its influential member (as probably other Middle Eastern countries). All this makes the Iranian “gingerbread” very attractive for Russia. And there is also the conceptual Iranian “whip”: if Israel does it in its own way, and Iran will undergo a massive and brutal attack from the US, and as a result, there will be either chaos or a severe crisis, as it will affect Russia and its allies ? And, although I do not doubt for a second that this is possible, let’s assume that the US establishes the pro-Western regime in Tehran and arranges a coup in the Islamic Republic – what will this give the Russian national security? This will be just a nightmare, is it not?
Let’s look at the relationship between Russia and Turkey before the coup attempt against Erdogan. Certainly, the relationship was much worse than what has developed between the Islamic Republic and Russia, right? And yet, when the US tried to overthrow Erdogan, what did Russia do? Russia provided Erdogan with full support and even, judging by some rumors, physical protection for several key hours. If Russia sided with Erdogan against the US, why not take the side of th
e Islamic Republic, even if we take into account the arguments of Russia’s interests?