In any fence there must be a wicket, even if it is a fence of a military unit where the checkpoint is provided. It is foolish to climb through the fence, unless you steal the neighbors’ apples or try to find out military secrets. In the first case, you can get a charge of salt in a soft place, in the second you can run into a warning: “Stop! I will shoot! ”, Which can be followed not only by a warning shot in the air. But the phrase does not let Ukraine go: “Hedgehogs cried, injected, but continued to gnaw the cactus” – the “Square” fleet is again preparing to enter the Kerch Strait. And, of course, – with the fight. No, well, how else? Not permission to ask.
If you want to make God laugh – tell him about your plans. That is why, one wonders, Ukraine has now announced through the lips of Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Oleksandr Turchynov a new campaign of warships through the Kerch Strait? Who wanted to laugh? If Russia did, then this is a completely useless shaking of the air – that Kiev is ready to use another trick and organize a provocation at any price, so Moscow is well aware of this. And not only in the Sea of Azov, but also on the border with the Crimea in the Perekop region, to the south in the Donbass, where the Ukrainian tanks are warming up the engines waiting for the team to attack. But you never know about any bad thoughts known. The truth is, most of them freeze at the tip of the pen of Ukrainian politicians and high-ranking military. As the saying goes, the dog barks, and the caravan moves on.
In Washington, they wrote a scenario in which a conflict between the army of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of Ukraine may occur.
And here Turchinov, who revealed the plans of Kiev, stating that “if we stop and retreat, Russia will actually fulfill its task of seizing the Sea of Azov, present the self-proclaimed new maritime borders in the Black Sea to the world, de facto legalizing the occupation of the Crimea”, with the terms similar operation did not get excited. He confined himself to a vague phrase that “it is impossible to hesitate with this question,” which actually means “never,” at least in the foreseeable future. “At the same time, with a view of a suicide bomber ready to breastfeed on the embrasure, he pathetically said:” to such actions! “Everything, Turchinov, the boy said – the boy did, go, throw yourself at the machine gun. But, as they say in Ukraine itself, the” bad dumb “and the head of the National Security and Defense Council are not going to risk their lives.
Actually, all these loud statements about the new “march” on the Kerch Strait are meant for one ears only and they, of course, are American. And the leitmotif of Turchinov’s current statements is precisely the desire to attract Western partners, who should send their ships to participate in the demonstration passage of the convoy from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov. Well, it is necessary to somehow force Russia to reckon with international law. I can’t do this with my half-submerged fleet, and international law is clearly not on the Ukrainian side in this matter, so there can be no foreign assistance here.
However, the answer to the NATO proposal to join the naval campaign of Ukraine was not followed. Do not burn with a special desire to go into battle and the United States. President Trump here in the heat of the moment stated that he was sending American ships to the Black Sea, their passage had even been agreed with Turkey, but at the last moment everything was canceled. Either expensive or unsafe, or the position of European leaders who did not consider the “Kerch incident”, during which Russia used reasonable force to violate its territorial waters, was a cause for tougher sanctions, put on guard. In general, you donut hole, comrades Ukrainians, not US NAVY in the Sea of Azov.
Do not rush to surrender in such situations Turchinov taught, undoubtedly, the chief intriguer of Ukraine Poroshenko, who himself repeatedly received a turn from the gate, but then he came in from the other end. So the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council expressed the hope that during the next trip of the Ukrainian ships through the Kerch Strait, they (I suppose the United States and NATO) would at least send their observers to us. “When the attention of the leading countries of the world will be riveted on this issue, Russia will hold its tail and will not risk aggressively acting,” Turchinov said. Well, yes, the heat with someone else’s hands is also in the Ukrainian trend now. In this case, I would like to look at the “observer” who, in his right mind and solid memory, will decide on a military ship of a foreign state to violate the border of another state, which is properly guarded. Something is doubtful. Won the American destroyer “Donald Cook” drapanul from the coast of the Crimea only after the impact of the EIB “Khibiny”, which he
The American destroyer Donald Cook won out of the coast of the Crimea only after the impact of the Khibiny electronic warfare system, with which the Russian Su-24 blinded him, and then there will be a chance of getting a shell.
Not everything, of course, is so illusory in a conflict situation in the Kerch Strait and in the USA they are ready to use any excuse to substitute the Russian tripping board. And now, right after Turchinov’s statements, 41 out of 100 acting US senators called on President Trump to conduct a multinational (again, not themselves, alone it is creepy) operation against Russia in the Black Sea. This is necessary, they said, to “ensure freedom of navigation” and demonstrate support for “internationally recognized borders.” Well, as without it – “to repel excessive claims of Russia to sovereignty”, one must assume that “humiliated” Ukraine.
Belgian naval personnel on duty in the Baltic Sea as part of NATO’s presence were shocked by the allegedly two Russian Su-24s that flew over them.
Senators operated on the US law “On Countering America’s Enemies through Sanctions.” It is clear who the enemy is to the Americans. At the same time, they called on the president to use his powers to expand the capabilities of the Ukrainian military. But it’s already expanded – six inflatable motorboats have been installed, two old border boats (unarmed) have been sold, this is the whole flotilla. Apparently, it is going to storm the Kerch Strait.
By the way, about the fence and the gate. Ukrainian ships, as well as warships (under a number of conditions, including the absence of aggressive thoughts) may pass the Kerch Strait on legal grounds. It is enough to apply for the passage of the bay itself and under the Kerch (Crimea) bridge for 12-24 hours, depending on the type of vessel (ship). And when in September 2018, two Ukrainian ships did everything according to the Rules, no one prevented them from passing, and certainly not delayed. In contrast to the situation on November 25 of this year, when the “mosquito” fleet of Ukraine tried to make a breakthrough without any coordination with the Russian side, which led to undesirable consequences.
By the way, according to the Federal Law of the Russian Federation No. 4730 of 2016 (On the state border of the Russian Federation) art. 30 p. 19, Russian border guards have the right to “prosecute and detain a vessel outside the territorial waters of the Russian Federation that has violated international treaties of the Russian Federation, federal laws and other regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation before the vessel’s entry into the territorial sea of its country or a third state, if started in the waters or in the adjacent zone of the Russian Federation after a visual or audible stop signal was given from a distance that allows the ship to see or hear this signal, and was carried out continuously. ” So all the laments of Ukraine over the seizure of the “innocent” – in favor of the poor. The law does not need to be broken.
Let’s look at the geographical, as well as the political map of the world, and specifically on the designated territory. The Sea of Azov is a closed water area with access to the Black Sea through the Kerch Strait, which belongs to Russia. Neither destroyers, nor cruisers, nor aircraft carriers ever plowed here. By and large, the Russian fleet does not look in here either – the Azov puddle. But the territory covers as the rear part.
The Ukrainian fleet on the Sea of Azov before was represented only by frontier boats and scrapped after years-old vessels, which had long lost the status of a “warship”. A certain status of Azov was attempted by the Ukrainian President Poroshenko, who in June 2016 announced the entry of two Gyurza-M armored boats into the Navy (there were 6 of them in total, 4 now left for known reasons ).
If objectively – good boats, but only to combat smugglers and poachers on the rivers. This is certainly not the fleet with which the Ukrainian naval command is trying to portray the “policy of aircraft carriers.”
Analysis of the forces and means of the Ukrainian Navy shows (no offense) — there is no fleet, real fleet we mean. The flagship is a frigate “Getman Sagaidachny”, a former Soviet frontier patrol ship, which is now only in the movies to be shot. The only “submarine in the steppes of Ukraine” – the diesel submarine “Zaporozhye” in the spring of 2014 was not able to leave the coast of the Crimea, is also of interest only to Hollywood. Armored boats – do not count. In the dry Ukrainian naval remnant – only a couple of unfinished projects from the rusting heritage. And with this “wealth”, is Ukraine ready to go for the breakthrough of the Kerch Strait?
Captain of the 1st Rank, retired, military commentator Sergey Ischenk speaks about the Kerch Strait says:
– Here it is necessary to pay attention to several circumstances. First, a statement by 41 US senators followed immediately after Turchinov announced a new provocation in the Kerch Strait. Second: just a few days ago, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Stepan Poltorak visited the Pentagon. On the purpose of his visit overseas, Kiev spoke only in the most general terms. However, it is logical to assume that these two events are closely linked. Poltorak was most likely just summoned to the US military to get the latest instructions on the planned breakthrough through the Kerch Strait.
This, in my opinion, confirms that the provocation near Kerch was fully conceived and coordinated by the Americans. And most likely – and developed in the Pentagon.
I can assume that the Americans themselves will actively participate in this operation. It is possible – on the eve, in full compliance with the Montreux Convention, they will introduce a pair of their destroyers through the Bosphorus into the Black Sea. The British reconnaissance ship HMS Echo will also be pulled up there; on December 17, “by the way,” it had entered the port of Odessa in advance. And on the day the operation is conducted by Ukrainians within the framework of international maritime law, these NATO forces will approach the edge of Russia’s territorial waters in the Crimea region.
Naturally, about any use of weapons by the ships of the 6th fleet of the US Navy is out of the question. But the political support of Kiev’s efforts will be very visible.
What can the Russian side do in this situation? Pre-block the narrow passage under the Crimean bridge. For example, a large cargo ship under the pretext of engine breakdown. Or, say, to start urgent work on repairing one of the pillars of the bridge itself and completely stop any movement from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov. Because now Russia will not open fire, we in the current situation is unlikely to become.
I would pay attention to this. Kiev, both of which had preceded passage through the Kerch Strait — and succeeded in September, and stopped by Russian border guards in November — was carried out exclusively accompanied by tugboats. One of which is now in Ukrainian Mariupol, the second, who was arrested, is in Russian Kerch. In total, Naval Forces in Odessa, there are only two tugs. Is it unknown whether they are on the move? Therefore, a new breakthrough of the Ukrainian Navy will most likely not be easy to organize even with the help of the Americans.